Episode summary
Oil Dives as Trump Backs Off Iran Threats | Bloomberg Intelligence
Bloomberg Intelligence
· · 19 min · Hosts: Paul Sweeney, Scarlet Fu · Guests: Mike McGlone, Mark Gurman, Steve Lamar
Summary
Oil prices pulled back after President Donald Trump signaled a possible off-ramp on Iran, and Mike McGlone argued that the move could mark the start of a much deeper slide. He said front-month crude could be “closer to 50 than 100” by the midterms, with gasoline and diesel likely already near their peaks, and he tied the outlook to lower geopolitical risk, a stronger U.S. energy export position, and rising recession pressure.
McGlone also said the recent spike in gold looked like a blow-off top, comparing it to prior peaks in 1980 and 2011. He argued the metal had become extremely expensive versus Bloomberg’s commodity measures, had “bought the rumor” on conflict risk, and was now “way too expensive,” with silver following a similar pattern.
On Apple, Mark Gurman said John Ternus is emerging as the most likely successor to Tim Cook and that the transition is becoming more important inside Apple’s board and executive ranks. Gurman described Ternus as a hardware and engineering leader who fits Apple’s current culture, but said he would be a better fit if the company stays hardware-centric than if it shifts toward an AI and software-led model.
Steve Lamar said apparel and footwear importers expect tariff refunds to be returned quickly after the Supreme Court’s decision, and he argued the process should include interest. He also said new tariff authorities remain contentious and warned that the Iran conflict is already pressuring oil, freight and supply chains across the economy.
Key takeaways
- Mike McGlone said crude could fall toward $50 a barrel by the midterms, versus about $73 today, if Iran tensions ease and recession forces build.
- McGlone said gasoline around $4 and diesel around $5.30 may have already peaked, and he expects oil volatility to spill into broader markets.
- McGlone called the gold rally finished, saying the metal is now too expensive and that similar fast peaks have tended to last for years.
- Mark Gurman said John Ternus is the most likely Tim Cook successor and a continuity pick for Apple because of his hardware and manufacturing focus.
- Steve Lamar said tariff refunds should go back automatically to the importer of record, with interest, and that delays would cost the government money.
Notable quotes
“By the time we get to the midterms, Paul, I think that front crude oil contract will be closer to 50 than 100”
“I think that bull run's over, Scarlet. It's very similar inklings to 1980 and the peak in 2011 as far as a high velocity”
“John Turnis, the senior VP of hardware engineering, is at the center of the action”
“if Apple's going to remain a hardware ccentric company a product ccentric company uh he's the person to take them into the next 15 20 years”
“Our our attitude is that refunds should be returned the same way they were collected automatically, fully quickly to the importer of record”
How the episode opens
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Let's check in with Mike Mcllo. He's our commodity strategist down there uh in Miami Beach. Hey Mike Christine, um I guess predictable and we get a little ease in the tensions in the Middle East and we see oil pull back here.
How much should to the extent or let's assume that President Trump does want to get find an off-ramp here and and cease operations in Iran? Where do you expect oil to go and over what time frame? By the time we get to the midterms, Paul, I think that front crude oil contract will be closer to 50 than 100.
Right now it's $73 a barrel. That's the December contract. So in futures and commodities like they say we're going where the puck's skating where the puck's going.
Well, that's where it's going. The high was 78. So the front contract was unable to get above 100 and now it's ticking down.
But we have good reason. So I think that high we put in this year around 120 is going to last for years. Very similar to 130 in 2022 and 147 in 2008.
And the key question is now we have the bottom line is we have the leader of the world's most significant energy producer net exporter of crude oil natural gas who wants prices lower and there's election in November. So to me that's where it's going.
So you see it all lining up. How long does it take before uh we see prices at the pump?
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- oil prices
- iran tensions
- tariffs
- apple services ai
- supply chain disruption
Companies and tickers mentioned
- AAPL
- Apple
- Bloomberg News
- American Apparel & Footwear Association
Watch the episode
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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