Episode summary
Oil Pushes Higher With Ukraine Talks and China’s Pledge in Focus | Bloomberg Intelligence
Bloomberg Intelligence
· · Hosts: Paul Sweeney, Caroline Hyde · Guests: Mike McGlone, Mike Regan, Katherine Chiglinksy, Mina Fahmi
Summary
The episode centered on a bearish commodity outlook even as oil rose on hopes for progress in US-Ukraine talks. The guest argued that crude remains in a broader downtrend, with next year’s range potentially around $40 to $70 and break-even production costs near $55, while natural gas could move toward $2 and corn toward $3.50. The same guest also warned that silver is extremely overbought, expects Bitcoin to remain in a bear market, and said the combination of surging precious metals and low stock-market volatility is a warning sign for equities.
The discussion then shifted to the year’s defining market trades, especially the AI boom and Michael Burry’s short bets against Nvidia and Palantir. A guest said Burry’s puts hit the market at a sensitive moment and may have exposed how much of the AI trade still rests on hope about future winners. The conversation also highlighted the changing balance of power between big banks and private credit, with banks regaining share in leveraged lending and acquisition financing as regulation eases.
The final segment focused on AI wearables and a new smart ring from Sandbar. The founder argued the product is meant to be an input-focused extension of the user, combining voice, memory, and note-taking without always listening, and priced at $249 for silver and $299 for gold. The product was presented as part of a broader race to make AI more personal, discreet, and useful in daily life.
Key takeaways
- The guest said crude oil remains bearish, with a 2026 range around $40 to $70 and break-even production costs near $55.
- The guest said silver is one of the most overbought commodities and expects it could fall toward 50 next year.
- The guest said Bitcoin is still in a bear market and is more likely to head toward 50 than extend the rally.
- A guest said Michael Burry’s disclosed put positions in Nvidia and Palantir helped puncture the AI trade at a high point.
- A guest said big banks are regaining momentum in leveraged loans and acquisition finance as private credit faces more scrutiny.
- The founder said Sandbar’s Stream Ring is designed to listen only when touched and sell for $249 in silver or $299 in gold.
Notable quotes
“I think the range in crude oil can be from around 40 to 70”
“Silver is one of the most overbought commodities on the planet”
“I think Bitcoin is more likely to head towards 50”
“it only listens when this touch pad is held. And the mic only picks up basically what's right in front of it”
How the episode opens
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Talks between the US and Ukraine are helping to advance oil prices this morning. Let's get some more insight now on this and other commodity moves with Miami. Mike Mcloone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence located in Miami Beach.
Um Mike, talk to us about just I mean I'm seeing you know WT crude oil $58 a barrel. It's up a buck, but this is really really low price for oil. Our good friends in the oil patch in Odessa in Midland, Texas, they are not happy.
No, they aren't. Um and unfortunately they're still producing more oil. Now that is on decline.
That should be it's the responsive elasticity to lower prices. But what's happening in Russia Ukraine if there's dant if there's significant peace the first thing you should expect to go down is potentially gold and natural gas natural gas prices because we'll be bringing on more of that supply. So it's not really a good reason unless there's some kind of curtailment of supply for prices to go up.
It's an overall bare market. But if you look over next year, I think the range in crude oil can be from around 40 to 70. Now that's a normal first standard deviation move if we end the year between 55 and 60.
But the bottom line, Paul, is the average cost of production, the break even cost in this country is around 55. So they could do pretty well. And the point is you basically have to get below those levels for an elongated period to offset these excesses of global supply versus demand.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- oil prices
- ukraine talks
- china growth pledge
- ai trading
- private credit banks
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Scion Asset Management
- Sandbar Co-Founder & CEO
- Bloomberg Intelligence
- Bloomberg News
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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