Episode summary
OpenAI Expects $70 Billion in Annualized Revenue by End of 2026 | Bloomberg Intelligence
Bloomberg Intelligence
· · 18 min · Hosts: Scarlet Fu, John Tucker, Paul Sweeney · Guests: Matthew Bloxham, Sid Philip, Tim Craighead
Summary
OpenAI’s expected annualized revenue of $70 billion by the end of 2026 was framed less as a surprise than as a question of accounting and timing. The analyst said the apparent gap with earlier expectations mostly reflected different ways of booking revenue, especially around third-party providers, and argued that OpenAI is probably tracking roughly where investors already thought it was. He also noted that revenue remains the key valuation yardstick for loss-making AI companies, citing lofty forward-sales multiples across the group.
The discussion then turned to SpaceX’s move into mobile connectivity. The analyst said the company sees spectrum purchases as a cheaper, more disruptive way to challenge incumbents than acquiring a carrier outright, with incremental revenue from telecom services layered on top of its core business. He said the real question is whether SpaceX can accumulate enough spectrum to matter at scale.
Delta Air Lines came under pressure from higher jet fuel costs tied to the war in the Middle East, prompting a lower full-year earnings outlook of $5.10 to $5.60 a share in 2026. The guest said demand is still holding up among premium travelers, even as price-sensitive customers pull back. The final segment highlighted BI’s 10 Focus list for 4Q, centered on company-specific catalysts and a split between businesses serving high-end consumers and those exposed to weaker lower-end demand.
Key takeaways
- The analyst said OpenAI’s $70 billion annualized revenue target is mostly about timing and revenue recognition, not a major miss versus prior expectations.
- The analyst argued that revenue growth is the main valuation metric for private AI names because profitability is still absent.
- SpaceX is treating spectrum buys as a lower-cost path into mobile service than acquiring an incumbent carrier, but scale remains uncertain.
- Delta reduced its 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to $5.10 to $5.60, citing higher jet fuel costs and the war in the Middle East.
- BI’s 4Q stock ideas emphasized that premium products are holding up better than businesses tied to lower-end consumers.
Notable quotes
“they're more or less where people were thinking they would be. Um, but it just depends how you're defining the revenue”
“if you look at OpenAI, you know they're looking to raise money at a total valuation of 1.4 trillion”
“they sort of expect now to get between 510 and 560 a share in 2026 down from 650 to 750 and that's largely down to jet fuel”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 10 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. — Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. We can't go 5 minutes without talking about AI. John Tucker, I I think it's been made.
Is it still AI? I thought it was like super — Oh, super intelligence. Yeah. Well, depending who you're talking to, — Don't get on the enemies list.
No, no, no. Wouldn't want to do that. Um, let's talk about Open AI because there was some reporting that it now expects to reach or exceed $70 billion in annualized revenue by the end of the year.
That's according to people familiar with the matter. And we want to understand where that stands acc based on what people were thinking previously. Matt Bloxom is our Bloomberg Intelligence senior media and tech analyst.
He joins us now with more. And Matt, there's some confusion here over just how much Open AI can book in revenue by the end of the year. Are they doing better than we expected or worse than we expected?
Slower than they expected? How are we thinking about this?
Yeah, it's a good question. I I think probably the answer is that they're more or less where people were thinking they would be. Um, but it just depends how you're defining the revenue.
And I think a lot of the confusion came uh that there had been some indications or calculations that by the end of September they would be at that 70 billion annualized revenue run rate and obviously on the face of it now looks like that's been shifted to December.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- ai revenue
- space and satellite communications
- airline fuel costs
- enterprise software growth
- commodities and energy
Companies and tickers mentioned
- DAL
- KO
- OpenAI
- SpaceX
- Grain Management LLC
- Starlink
- Delta Air Lines Inc.
- Coca-Cola
- Cosco Energy
- Kalshi
Watch the episode
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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