Episode summary
SpaceX Jumps in First Trades Following Record $75 Billion IPO | Bloomberg Intelligence
Bloomberg Intelligence
· · 24 min · Hosts: Paul Sweeney, Scarlet Fu · Guests: Anthony Hughes, George Ferguson, Ross Hamilton
Summary
SpaceX’s debut was framed as a strong but not euphoric opening, with the stock pricing at $135, opening at $150 and trading near $156 to $160 after the first burst. The host and Anthony Hughes said the 11% first-trade gain was healthy for an IPO, even if some investors may have expected a bigger pop given the deal’s hype and $75 billion size. Hughes also argued that the day-one trading pattern and heavy volume were normal for a major offering, and that the lockup structure is more complex than a standard six-month period.
The discussion quickly shifted from the mechanics of the IPO to what investors are actually buying. George Ferguson said many buyers are backing Elon Musk’s vision rather than conventional financial metrics, and he argued the biggest long-term swing factor is SpaceX’s AI-related revenue opportunity. He pointed to existing launch and connectivity businesses as understandable, but said AI is the part that could justify the valuation if data-center deals keep scaling.
Ross Hamilton of Space Network said the market is also betting on SpaceX as infrastructure for broader industries, not just rockets. He described the company’s $29 trillion total addressable market narrative as a thesis about AI compute, robotics, government work and future commercial space infrastructure. The panel repeatedly returned to one theme: the IPO is less about near-term fundamentals than a bid on Musk’s ability to build a new category quickly.
Key takeaways
- Anthony Hughes said a 11% first-trade gain was solid for an IPO, though the market may have hoped for more given the hype around SpaceX.
- Hughes said the lockup is not a standard six-month structure; it stretches over a year with multiple release periods.
- George Ferguson argued most buyers are paying for Elon Musk’s vision and execution, not traditional valuation support.
- Ferguson said launch and connectivity are easier to model, but AI is the variable that could drive the biggest upside.
- Ross Hamilton said the $29 trillion addressable-market pitch is really a bet that SpaceX becomes infrastructure for AI, robotics and government work.
Notable quotes
“I think if you look, you know, if you look at some of the recent deals cut with Anthropic, right? So, what that's a billion and a quarter a month”
“It really wants to be the infrastructure that's running all industry, all markets”
How the episode opens
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We got this thing trading. It's now trading uh it it priced at 135, opened at 150. here at 156. Uh Anthony Hughes, Bloomberg, US equity capital markets reporter. What do you think here, Anthony?
Well, um I think you know 11% gain on the first trade is uh probably a number that would for most IPOs would be considered uh you know what you would hope to achieve, but you know in the in the sense that this IPO there's a lot of hype and uh uh enthusiasm uh and a lot of people involved in this deal. I think maybe people were hoping for a bigger number. I I really like the fact that you started there because um the headlines were crossing as of the first 30 minutes of trade and the initial headline was that it was indicated to open at $175 a piece and it's been steadily going down.
We've gotten headlines about, you know, oh now it's 174, now it's 172, now it's 170 all the way down to 150. Is that a bad sign?
Yeah. Well, just to uh understand the process a bit better, I mean the Morgan Stanley is a stabilization agent for the IPO and they also have the role of opening the the IPO. But basically that process involves bringing together all these buyers and sellers for this opening print. And you want to make sure that the opening print is sort of ideally as fair a price as you can get.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- spacex ipo
- nasdaq debut
- ai data center deals
- space economy
- revenue growth outlook
Companies and tickers mentioned
- SpaceX
- xAI
- Anthropic
- Space Network
Watch the episode
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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