Episode summary
SpaceX’s $101 Billion Unlock Heaps Pressure on Battered Shares | Bloomberg Intelligence
Bloomberg Intelligence
· · Hosts: Paul Sweeney, Scarlet Fu · Guests: George Ferguson, Mandeep Singh, Geetha Ranganathan, Lily Meier
Summary
SpaceX drew the sharpest reaction, with the stock falling after investors focused on heavier AI spending, weaker visibility, and no clear guidance on when the business turns profitable. The analyst argued the company’s valuation is still far ahead of peers and that the market is struggling to price Elon Musk’s long-term AI and satellite vision against a backdrop of rising capex, a planned $60 billion buyout, and a large amount of cash that may not last as long as investors hope.
AMD also sold off after what the analyst called a solid quarter but an underwhelming outlook. He said the company is growing fast, but Nvidia is still expanding from a much larger base and AMD faces hold-ups as customers wait for a new architecture, while hyperscalers increasingly want to build proprietary chips. The episode also covered Disney’s better-than-expected quarter, where profits from parks and streaming reassured investors and reinforced that Josh D’Amaro is moving quickly to reshape the company.
The final segment on Lululemon framed the company as a premium brand under pressure from competitors, product missteps, and an outspoken founder. The reporter said new CEO Heidi O’Neill inherits both a product challenge and governance tension, even as the founder has agreed to stay quiet for 18 months in exchange for board representation and regular meetings.
Key takeaways
- The analyst said SpaceX’s valuation still requires growth out to 2029 and profitability in 2028 to compare with hyperscalers like Microsoft.
- He said SpaceX’s AI business has doubled capex and remains loss-making, while the company lacks guidance on when losses improve.
- AMD’s print was solid, but the analyst said the stock reaction reflected rich valuation, Nvidia’s dominance, and customers waiting for a new chip architecture.
- Disney’s parks and experiences division remains the profit engine, with the analyst saying it accounts for less than 40% of revenue but almost 60% of profit.
- The reporter said Lululemon’s new CEO must contend with a founder-led settlement, product issues, and competition from Alo, Vuori, Target, and Old Navy.
Notable quotes
“you had to get out to like 2029 uh and projections for a lot of growth in revenue and then turning profitable in 2028”
“They doubled capex inside the AI business and that's still very lossmaking”
“At some point you got to turn this into a profitable enterprise and right now the vision looks like a lot of AI”
“the experiences division or the theme parks division as you just pointed out makes up less than 40% of total company revenue but almost 60% of profit”
How the episode opens
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Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. SpaceX, the stock down about 8 and a half percent right now, but at its low it was down about 12 and a half percent and that raises a lot of questions about the results and what we learned. Um, Alexis mentioned a lot of AI spending.
Let's bring in George Ferguson. He's our senior aerospace, defense, and airlines analyst joining us from Princeton. And George, it's tempting to chalk this up to investors were not in the mood to hear of plans for more spending when they're not seeing how the spending is paying off just yet.
But is this kind of decline that we're seeing an overreaction given the set of results that SpaceX published?
Well, you know, we put out a report uh right around the IPO time talking about valuations for SpaceX, right? And we we we don't tell people to buy or sell, but what we said was look, you had to get out to like 2029 uh and projections for a lot of growth in revenue and then turning profitable in 2028 just to start to be able to compare to the other hyperscalers like Microsoft. So uh look I I think that uh you know the challenge here is valuations are are living in you know in the stratosphere compared to some of their peers and so you're challenged to kind of see you know what's the advantage to SpaceX over some of those other companies right and so I think there was selling going on in the stock prior to earnings call yesterday uh sorry you know for for days and weeks before that yesterday was a bit of a you know a turnaround where there was a bit of a rally, but I think you're back to a sale.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- spacex earnings
- ai capex
- amd guidance
- walt disney results
- lululemon ceo
Companies and tickers mentioned
- AMD
- DIS
- LULU
- SpaceX
- Advanced Micro Devices
- Walt Disney
- Lululemon Athletica
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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