Episode summary
US Firms Add Just 29,000 Jobs, Unemployment Rate Ticks Up: Instant Reaction | Bloomberg Intelligence
Bloomberg Intelligence
· · 25 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney · Guests: Claudia Sahm, Rebecca Patterson, Kristina Campmany
Summary
US payroll growth slowed sharply in September, with the host citing nonfarm payrolls of just 29,000 versus expectations near 90,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% and average hourly earnings came in weaker than forecast. The discussion centered on whether this was a meaningful weakening in labor demand or just another month of a low-hiring, low-firing economy. The host and guests emphasized that revisions to prior months also mattered, but they argued the broader picture was still one of labor-market stasis rather than collapse.
A guest said the report undercuts the idea that hiring had reaccelerated, while also noting the unemployment rate is basically unchanged and labor-force growth is slowing. She argued the Fed is unlikely to change its approach much because it is focused more on sticky inflation than on a labor market that is stable but not especially strong. Another guest said central banks cannot fix supply shocks and that AI-related capex is adding growth, inflation pressure, and competition for labor and debt financing.
In markets, bond yields fell after the report, with the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields moving lower, while equities and futures held up. A guest said this fits a higher-for-longer regime in rates and that investors should not expect the post-2008 zero-rate era to return.
Key takeaways
- The host said September nonfarm payrolls rose just 29,000, far below expectations, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%.
- A guest said the report undercuts the idea of a stronger labor market and instead points to very low job creation and limited dynamism.
- A guest said the Fed probably will not change course much because inflation, not labor, remains the central bank’s main concern.
- A guest argued that AI capex is boosting growth but also raising inflation pressure, construction bottlenecks, and Treasury supply.
- A guest said investors should expect a higher-for-longer bond regime and should not count on the ultra-low-rate period after 2008 returning.
Notable quotes
“The unemployment rate rising to 4.2%. The expectation was 4.1%. Average hourly earnings on a month overmonth basis coming in much less than expected”
“this this does undercut the story that had been coming in today that maybe we have some strengthening in the labor market”
“I think we are in a higher for longer regime”
How the episode opens
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From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- jobs report
- unemployment rate
- wage growth
- employer caution
- portfolio management
Companies and tickers mentioned
- IVZ
- Invesco
- New Century Advisors
Watch the episode
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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