Episode summary
0423 Surveillance Radio Podcast | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 39 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Anastasia Amoroso, Paul Sankey, Michael Purves, Nisha Patel
Summary
The guests argued that markets are still being driven by two powerful forces: AI optimism and higher-for-longer energy costs. One guest said investors are focusing on what they can observe and control, namely artificial intelligence, because the Middle East conflict has made oil and geopolitics harder to price. That view was paired with a bullish case for equities: earnings have been strong, companies are passing through costs, and the economy is supported by multiple growth engines including consumer spending, corporate profits and AI-related capex.
Energy was treated as a supply-shock story rather than a collapse in demand. One guest said crude can stay elevated, but the more important issue is the physical market for refined products, tanker capacity and bottlenecks that could keep pressure on jet fuel and distillates for weeks or months. The discussion also emphasized that the current environment could support energy infrastructure, diversification and resilience themes, even if oil prices remain volatile.
Later, the conversation turned to fixed income, where the focus was on tax-efficient municipal bonds. A guest said high-tax investors can still find attractive tax-equivalent yields, especially in intermediate and longer-duration munis, even after heavy issuance. Credit quality was described as generally resilient, but with pockets of strain in healthcare and higher education, making active selection important.
Key takeaways
- A guest said AI remains the market’s clearest growth story because investors are searching for observable themes amid geopolitical uncertainty.
- A guest expects oil can settle around $80 to $90 a barrel in the near term, which he sees as manageable for most companies.
- A guest said earnings are still “stellar,” with 88% of companies beating expectations and broad profit growth supporting equities.
- A guest argued the bigger oil problem is refined-product and tanker disruption, not just the headline crude price.
- A guest said municipal bonds still offer attractive tax-equivalent yields, with especially good opportunities in the intermediate and long end of the curve.
- A guest said credit is generally resilient, but active selection matters because healthcare and higher education are showing stress.
Notable quotes
“investors can't really figure out when the end of the ceasefire, when the end of the conflict is going to be in the Middle East”
“the total addressable market for AI just keeps on expanding”
“if oil is at a 100 120 barrel you know, dollars a barrel for a long time, then this is going to drive material cost inflation”
“I think it's been stellar. I think it's been a rockstar earning season”
“the physical is a physical fact, a fact of physics, literally”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts, radio, news. — This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 7:00 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. Why don't you bring in Anastasia Amoroso here?
Anastasia hangs out in Zug. I looked it up on the map. — Oh, I didn't know that. — The lake. That's one of the other places. — It's very Zugy. — Okay, very good to know. — How you pronounce it? — It is Zug. Yes.
I came close. — Uh, you're you got it, Tom. Anastasia Amoroso, chief investment strategist at Partners Group. Anastasia, boy, we were talk we just mentioning this the the SOX index has had such a rip over the last 16 days of gains here. Indeed. So, tech is now being the driver being the driver for this market. Is that where we are these days?
Yes, you know, I think what's happening, Paul, is investors can't really figure out when the end of the ceasefire, when the end of the conflict is going to be in the Middle East. And in the meantime, they're focusing on what they can control, what they can observe, and that is artificial intelligence. And I will say the total addressable market for AI just keeps on expanding.
This year with the move from conversational AI to agentic AI to glimpses of physical AI. And what do you need for all of that is semiconductors. And so, that's why investors keep flocking to the space.
So, as we step back, I mean, it looks like I don't know we're all in the same boat trying to figure out what's going to happen in Iran, but I think what we can at least in the near term it's higher for longer energy costs.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- ai market zoning
- energy and oil prices
- us-iran deadlocked talks
- volatility convexity
- duration and tax efficiency
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Partners Group
- Sankey Research
- Tallbacken Capital Advisors
- Parametric
Watch the episode
Watch “0423 Surveillance Radio Podcast | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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