Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: April 13th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 20 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Norman Roule, Christopher Marinac, Jason Draho
Summary
The episode centers on the market fallout from an escalating confrontation with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, where the guests argue that the immediate issue is whether shipping disruptions become sustained or are used as leverage short of full-scale war. Norman Roule says the U.S. move to stop shipping into Iranian ports is meant to test Tehran’s response, with risks ranging from tanker interceptions to threats against Gulf oil producers. He also says the key issues remain Iran’s nuclear program, missiles, and regional proxy activity.
The discussion then turns to Goldman Sachs’ earnings, where Christopher Marinac says the market can look through the FICC miss if the banking pipeline stays strong. He frames higher provisions for credit losses as a prudent, moderate build rather than a sign of broad stress, while warning that geopolitics could delay capital-markets activity in May and June.
Jason Draho of UBS keeps a constructive year-end view, saying the setup for first-quarter earnings remains intact and that 11% S&P 500 EPS growth and a 7,500 year-end target are still plausible absent a broader Middle East shock. He argues that the U.S. economy tends to adapt to supply shocks, though inflation shocks are hard to hedge and investors may need to de-risk rather than rely on a clean offset.
Key takeaways
- The analyst says the Strait of Hormuz fight is still early, but the U.S. is testing Iran’s resolve and a broader naval escort posture could follow.
- The guest says Goldman’s FICC miss is a short-run concern, but a strong banking pipeline and seasonal second-quarter strength can offset it.
- Christopher Marinac says the 315 million dollar build in provisions looks like prudent caution, not clear evidence of major credit stress.
- Jason Draho says the market can still reach 11% S&P 500 EPS growth this year if the Middle East situation does not materially worsen.
- Draho says inflation shocks are difficult to hedge directly, so investors may need to reduce risk or shorten duration exposure instead.
Notable quotes
“This may not mark the formal end of the ceasefire, but it could represent the beginning of its unraveling”
“At 10:00 a.m., in essence, you will have the United States stop all shipping into Iranian ports”
“I still think that seasonally, the second quarter is also very strong”
“I think the credit has its own uncertainties, particularly in the private world”
“the earning story still looks very much on track”
How the episode opens
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So, here's the latest this morning. Iran threatening to retaliate if the US blocks the Strait of Hormuz to ships that stop at its ports. One in quote, "No port in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman will be safe.
Norman Roule of CSIS writing, "It's the sharpest escalation since the ceasefire. This may not mark the formal end of the ceasefire, but it could represent the beginning of its unraveling. Norman joins us now for more.
Norman, welcome back to the program, sir. Norm, in your mind, what happens 7 hours from now at 10:00 a.m. Eastern time?
At 10:00 a.m., in essence, you will have the United States stop all shipping into Iranian ports. And for the Iranians, they will need to test US fortitude. They will likely try to do several things.
They may try to run several tankers through the Iranian side of the Strait of Hormuz into Iranian waters to see what we what will we do. If the tankers are instructed or instructed to continue, no matter what the US says, the Iranians will just see what happens. At the same time, the Iranians will look to see what ships go in outside under US control and then perhaps threaten to target those ships or the ports that where these ships attempt to dock.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- world markets
- asset allocation
- economy overview
- investment strategy
- warfare and terrorism
Companies and tickers mentioned
- UBS
- Center for Strategic & International Studies
- Brean Capital
- UBS Financial Services
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: April 13th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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