Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: April 24th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 20 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Peter Tchir, Jonathan Lieber, Veronica Clark
Summary
Markets are being pulled by three overlapping forces: higher oil prices from the Iran shock, tech earnings and AI spending, and a growing fear that corporate cost cuts are masking a softer labor market. A guest from Academy Securities argued that the base case is a continued energy squeeze that starts weighing on the economy, even as longer-dated WTI futures move up toward $80. He said the investment play is shifting toward energy, heavy industry, semiconductors, and other “production for security” names, especially in Europe where energy imports and weak growth are colliding.
The discussion also broadened into how government intervention and geopolitics are distorting incentives, from Intel’s government stake to drone and shipbuilding opportunities, and into the risks around prediction markets and insider trading. A guest from Eurasia Group said the CFTC’s parallel civil case against a soldier over Polymarket could be a first of many politically sensitive investigations. He also argued that Trump is likely heading toward some kind of deal with Iran, though probably not a clean or immediate one.
On monetary policy, a guest from Citi said the Fed still looks set to cut later this year, with September the new base case. She said oil could keep inflation uncomfortable in the near term, but the bigger story is a gradually weakening labor market and slowing take-home labor income.
Key takeaways
- Peter Tchir said the base case is that the Iran-related oil shock keeps struggling and starts weighing more on the economy.
- Peter Tchir said he wants to own energy and “production for security” names, including European heavy industry and utilities.
- Jonathan Lieber said the CFTC’s Polymarket action could be the first of many politically sensitive investigations into people trading on inside information.
- Jonathan Lieber said the direction of travel on Iran is toward some kind of deal, even if Trump can change course quickly.
- Veronica Clark said Citi pushed its Fed cut view out to September, with inflation data and a weaker labor market still driving the call.
Notable quotes
“Base case, I think, is that this continues to struggle and it starts weighing a little bit more on the economy”
“I want to own the energy plays. I want to own kind of that production for security, not just now in the US, but really heavily into Europe”
“I hope so. I mean I think this is actually a pretty major issue where you've got government officials who are using their position to profit”
“We expect a combination of soft core inflation and loosening labor markets to help wash convince the majority of the FOMC to cut rates before the end of the year”
“the primary driver of if people are spending or not I think is aggregate take home labor income and that is slowing this year”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts, radio, news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast.
I'm Jonathan Ferro, along with Lisa Abramowicz and Amory Horton. Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m.
Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg Business app.
We begin this hour with tech earnings helping to offset cyclical threats building in the energy market as US-Iran tensions continue to simmer. Peter Tchir of Academy Securities writing, "My best case is that the chatter from last week of an impending and very strong deal for the US comes to fruition. Pete joins us now for more.
Pete, good morning. Morning.
That's your best case. What's your base case? Base case, I think, is that this continues to struggle and it starts weighing a little bit more on the economy.
You just pointed out we've been looking longer-dated futures contracts and you're out to $80 in WTI out to November now. So, that's different and you're starting those longer months, September, October, November, you're actually at the highs of the whole cycle. So, unlike the front contract, which we're still below kind of those spikes, we're seeing this kind of push out and it's really hard to figure out who's in charge in Iran.
So, I think that's a big issue and it's really hard to figure out who's willing to make that first move. I think when we talk to our geopolitical intelligence group, you know, I the consensus view is that we will probably do and this war have to escalate once more to actually win.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- macro strategy
- geopolitical risk
- market outlook
- economy
- investment
Companies and tickers mentioned
- C
- Academy Securities
- Eurasia Group
- Citi
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: April 24th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
More from Bloomberg Surveillance
-
Stocks Rise as Inflation Data Ease Fed-Hike Worry | Bloomberg Surveillance -
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 13th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance -
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 12th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance -
Jensen Huang Ousted by Nvidia Board as CEO | Bloomberg Surveillance -
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 11th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance -
AI Stocks Rebound as Fed Hike Bets Return | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance, this episode and its artwork belong to Bloomberg. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
