Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: April 8th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 16 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Seth Jones, Amrita Sen, Julian Emanuel
Summary
The conversation centered on the US-Iran 2-week ceasefire, the risk that it may not hold, and what it means for the Strait of Hormuz. A defense analyst said the agreement is a step forward but argued there is a low probability Iran or its partner forces will respect it over the medium to long term. He said the most realistic near-term outcome is some regional arrangement to keep commercial shipping moving, while a broader deal would still face major obstacles around sanctions, missiles, and Iranian demands for US withdrawal and compensation.
The energy discussion focused on how much damage had already been done to oil flows and product markets. A guest said the Strait is not truly open for business, with shipping costs still punitive and confusion over payments and permissions. She said demand destruction is already visible in Asia, especially in jet fuel, naphtha, and LPG, and warned that the West may not feel the full impact until May into June because of the lag from crude purchase to refined product delivery.
The market view was that the ceasefire triggered a major relief rally, but not a return to the pre-crisis setup. An equity strategist said hedging had reached extreme levels across stocks, credit, bonds, and oil, and that the broader bull market still has room to run. He argued oil will settle structurally higher, around the mid to high 80s for Brent and low to mid 80s for WTI, but that this should not be a major headwind for equities.
Key takeaways
- A defense analyst said there is a low expectation the ceasefire will hold beyond the next 2 weeks.
- The Strait of Hormuz remains the key issue, with the guest saying commercial shipping is still not truly open for business.
- An energy analyst said Asia has already seen about 1 million barrels per day of demand destruction, mainly in jet fuel and related products.
- The market strategist said hedging had reached extreme levels across stocks, credit, bonds, and oil, creating a large relief move when tensions eased.
- Julian Emanuel said Brent ultimately lands in the mid to high 80s and WTI in the low to mid 80s, a higher structural range than before the conflict.
Notable quotes
“I do have low expectations that this is going to stick over the next 2 weeks”
“by no means a Strait that's open for business, to be very clear”
“we have definitely seen about a million barrels per day of reduction, mostly in jet fuel”
“there is no precedent for the the collective amount of hedging”
How the episode opens
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Here's the latest, the US and Iran agreeing to a 2-week ceasefire with Tehran vowing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Joining us now is someone who's worked in the Defense Department, who's worked with military forces in the US, has extensive experience in this entire region, Seth Jones of CSIS. Seth, thank you so much for being with us.
I want to start with your response to the ceasefire. How realistic you see it holding for after that 2 week and even this the entire 2 week period? Well, look, I think it's helpful that there has been there have been negotiations between the US and the Iranians.
I think it's helpful that and a step forward that that we are at a ceasefire. I just think it even in talking to Israeli officials recently, I think they do not expect the Iranians or Iranian partner forces to abide by any deal over the medium to long term. There were already sirens going off in Tel Aviv last night for potential incoming Iranian rockets.
So, I do have low expectations that this is going to stick over the next 2 weeks. So, what do you think has actually been accomplished, Seth? Well, it's hard to say.
I mean, when when I look at the 10-point plan that the Iranians have put together, most of those at least many of the points are completely unacceptable for the US over the long run.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- defense and security
- energy markets
- equity strategy
- quantitative investing
- macro economy
Companies and tickers mentioned
- EVR
- Evercore ISI
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: April 8th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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