Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: April 9th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 20 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Stefano Scarpetta, Bob Michele, Victoria Gardner Coates
Summary
Oil and gas prices were the central macro shock in the discussion, with OECD chief economist Stefano Scarpetta saying the Middle East conflict has already erased what would have been an upward revision to 2026 global GDP growth. He argued that Europe and Asia are more exposed than the U.S., and that governments should avoid broad, open-ended energy subsidies in favor of targeted, temporary support with sunset clauses.
On markets, Bob Michele said investors are beginning to price an off-ramp from the crisis and can live with oil around $100 a barrel for a while. He argued that fixed income still looks attractive, with the Fed effectively in hibernation, the 2-year yield a bit rich, and the 10-year around 4% to 4.25% looking reasonable. He also said the market has already accepted that a 2% inflation target is unrealistic and that inflation around 3% can coexist with roughly 2.25% real GDP growth.
Former Trump deputy national security advisor Victoria Coates said the ceasefire is fragile but that Iran has limited leverage beyond the Strait of Hormuz. She argued Tehran is desperate for cash, that tolls or crypto payments would be a short-term tactic rather than a durable solution, and that sanctions relief remains the real bargaining chip. She downplayed China as a transformative backer, saying Iran has few good options if the U.S. keeps economic pressure in place.
Key takeaways
- Scarpetta said the Middle East shock already wiped out a projected 0.3 percentage point upgrade to 2026 global GDP growth.
- Scarpetta urged governments to replace broad energy-price relief with targeted, temporary aid and sunset clauses.
- Michele said markets are pricing an off-ramp and can tolerate oil at $100 a barrel for a while.
- Michele said the Fed is likely to sit tight, with 3.625% fed funds leaving room for real rates to stay positive.
- Coates said Iran's main leverage is the Strait of Hormuz, but she views it as a declining asset over time.
- Coates said Iran is desperate for money and unlikely to win meaningful help from China without sanctions relief.
Notable quotes
“if on the 28th of February, before the the war in Iran, we would have actually revised upward the projection for global GDP growth for 2026 by 0.3 percentage point”
“our recommendation is to try to move as quickly as possible to more targeted measure that actually provide support to consumers”
“I think the best answer is we can live with oil $100 a barrel for a while”
“I think we in the markets accept that a 2% inflation target is a myth”
“they are desperate for money at this point. They their economy is absolutely on the rocks”
How the episode opens
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Here's the latest. Crude climbing as Tehran says some terms of the ceasefire have been violated.
The energy shock rippling through the global economy. Joining us now, I'm so pleased to say is OECD Chief Economist Stefano Scarpetta. Stefano, thank you so much for getting for making some time.
How much are you looking at a dampening effect on the global economy as a result of what's going on in the Middle East? Well, of course there is a lot of uncertainty. We just published our interim economic outlook on the 26th of November.
And basically, if on the 28th of February, before the the war in Iran, we would have actually revised upward the projection for global GDP growth for 2026 by 0.3 percentage point. All of that was shaved off because of the impact of the the war and the crisis in the Middle East and the increase, of course, in energy prices. Now, the recent announcement of the ceasefire, if it is implemented, if this means, of course, a reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and we have seen already in the in the impact on the price of oil, would have sort of a sort of an effect on the economy, and we see already a reduction in the price of oil.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- world markets
- macroeconomic outlook
- investment management
- economy
- finance
Companies and tickers mentioned
- JPM
- JP Morgan Investment Management
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: April 9th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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