Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: August 13th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 23 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Robert Kaplan, Angelo Zino, Lydia Mashburn Newman
Summary
The discussion centered on whether the latest CPI and PPI reports justify a September Fed rate hike, or whether the better read is that inflation is easing while growth remains uneven. Robert Kaplan said parts of the economy tied to AI infrastructure look strong, while housing, autos, and lower- and middle-income consumers look only “okay, not great,” and he argued the Fed should keep its options open rather than pre-commit. He also said a July hike would have been the wrong move, but he would still wait until September before deciding whether to change policy.
Kaplan framed the inflation backdrop as a tug of war between AI-driven capex, tariffs, labor constraints, and higher oil prices on one side, and AI adoption and Chinese overcapacity as disinflationary forces on the other. He said the bigger concern is the long end of the Treasury curve, which he sees as being pressured by supply, deficits, and structural factors rather than by the Fed alone.
On technology, Angelo Zino argued the AI and memory-chip trade remains intact despite pockets of weakness like Cerebras. He said demand is still strong, supply remains tight for the next six to eight quarters, and higher memory content in next-generation servers should keep pricing elevated. On the inflation debate, Lydia Mashburn Newman said the data still warrant caution, pointed to services inflation and PPI pass-through, and argued the Fed may need to restore credibility with a 25-basis-point hike sooner rather than later.
Key takeaways
- Robert Kaplan said the economy is split between AI-linked strength and slower pockets tied to housing, autos, and lower-income consumers.
- Kaplan argued the Fed should stay flexible into September and said he would not have cut rates in December or raised them in July.
- Angelo Zino said memory is the key bottleneck in AI hardware and expects supply to stay tight for at least six to eight quarters.
- Zino said higher memory content in next-generation servers should keep chip pricing elevated, even if the pace of increases slows.
- Lydia Mashburn Newman said services inflation remains near 3.0% and that PPI could still feed a slightly hotter PCE reading.
- Newman argued the Fed should consider a 25-basis-point hike in September or October to restore price-stability credibility.
Notable quotes
“if it's associated with the AI infrastructure build or AI adoption, then it's strong”
“you don't see aggressive hiring, but you don't see aggressive firing”
“The AI infrastructure build is probably inflationary, and you've got tariffs, labor constraints, oil spike that exacerbate that”
“we expect the market to continue to be supply constrained in nature”
“services inflation in CPI, we're still at 3.0%”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts, radio, news. — This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferro, along with Lisa Abramowicz and Amry Houghton. Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App.
Begin this hour with stocks and bonds steady as CPI eases September rate hike bets. The next read on inflation out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern with PPI on deck.
Goldman Sachs Vice Chair and former Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan joins us now for more. Rob, great to catch up with you. I want to start just by asking you your take on the economy and whether you were surprised by the relatively weak labor market report and then the very much in line, yet confusing, CPI report.
Uh what I'm seeing in the economy, if it's associated with the AI infrastructure build or AI adoption, then it's strong. Uh what I hear from a number of companies who are more tied to housing, autos, the strength of the low moderate income consumer, um I would say they describe the economy as okay, not great, somewhat sluggish. And so in that regard, the job market report kind of was in line with that.
Uh you don't see aggressive hiring, but you don't see aggressive firing. And I still think we're several months, or a year, away from companies having enough confidence in the AI use cases to more uh aggressively uh use AI to replace people, but that is likely to happen. I think there'll be new jobs created also, but but the point is unit labor costs are very well-behaved, and I think you and I have talked about this.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- world markets
- finance coverage
- economic outlook
- investment strategy
- monetary economics
Companies and tickers mentioned
- GS
- Goldman Sachs
- CFRA
- American Institute for Economic Research
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: August 13th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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