Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: August 17th, 2026 (Podcast) | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 24 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Lori Calvasina, Ed Mills, Neil Dutta
Summary
US equities held near record highs as the guest from RBC argued that the S&P 500 can still rise, but only in a “higher but not heroic” way. She kept her rolling S&P target at 8150, saying the market’s upside is supported by strong earnings, resilient growth expectations and an AI-driven leadership group, even as higher rates and inflation pressure valuation multiples. She also said the firm has trimmed consensus EPS assumptions by 10% and still sees room for gains if the economy stays on track.
The conversation turned to whether the market is underpricing geopolitical risk. The analyst from Raymond James said the Iran-Israel conflict is likely to remain unresolved through the midterms, with greater risk of escalation afterward. He said investors are focused on the Strait of Hormuz because it is the clearest verifiable pressure point, but also warned that the market can ignore the conflict as long as back-channel diplomacy creates an offramp.
The guest from Renaissance Macro said the market is too complacent about Fed policy. He argued a September hike is more likely than traders expect because inflation is still running above target, the labor market remains tight, and the Fed’s own checklist on energy, AI demand and tariffs has not improved enough. In his view, the Fed may not cut soon, and could instead push hikes deeper into the path.
Key takeaways
- The guest from RBC kept a 12-month S&P 500 target of 8150, saying returns can be constructive even if the path is not linear.
- The guest from RBC said strong earnings can offset some PE compression if inflation and yields stay elevated.
- The analyst from Raymond James said the Iran conflict looks unresolved and may become more dangerous after the midterms.
- The guest from Renaissance Macro said the market’s one-in-three odds of a September hike are too low because inflation is still not close to 2%.
- The guest from Renaissance Macro said rate hikes would slow growth, but that is what the Fed may need to restore price stability.
Notable quotes
“We continue to think of our forecast as higher but not heroic and reflective of the idea that stocks can move higher, though the path is unlikely to be linear”
“there is no real resolution. And one of the big debates is when does Trump declare quote unquote victory and move on”
“The market currently sees a one in three chance for a rate hike in September. That strikes me as low”
“I mean, yes, of course. I mean, it would that's the whole point is to slow growth down”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Pharaoh along with Lisa Abramitz and Amarie Hordern.
Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg television weekday mornings from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. Eastern.
Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. We begin this hour with stocks holding close to all-time highs, looking to build on three straight weeks of gains.
Lori Calvacina of RBC maintaining her rolling S&P target of 8150, writing, "We continue to think of our forecast as higher but not heroic and reflective of the idea that stocks can move higher, though the path is unlikely to be linear. Lori joins us now for more. Lori, good morning.
Good to see you.
Good morning. That's quite limited upside on the S&P compared to where we are right now. What gives?
Well, so look, we update the target once a month and we last did this at the end of July. So, we've obviously had a big move this month. And so, we would tell you to go back and look at the end of July when we froze the models.
It was actually about an 11.4% return over the next 12 months, which is basically in line with trend. And I would say as we go through the five models, our cross asset model has been very constructive. You know, looking for plus 8,300.
Um, when we look at the AII sentiment model, that's also been arguing for like a 10% plus gain. Our GDP model is interesting because back at the beginning of the year, consensus was looking for like 1 to 2% GDP early next year.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- us equity strategy
- washington policy
- us economic outlook
- macro research
- world markets
Companies and tickers mentioned
- RBC
- Raymond James
- Renaissance Macro Research
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: August 17th, 2026 (Podcast) | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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