Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: August 19th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 22 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Ed Yardeni, Gennadiy Goldberg, James Bullard
Summary
The episode focused on the selloff in long-dated Treasuries, why yields are rising, and whether the move is a warning sign or a return to normal. One guest argued that 4% to 5% yields are a healthy reset, not a crisis, and said the economy can absorb them because consumer spending and capital spending remain resilient. He also said the bond market is close to a fair-value range for stocks, which is why he still sees the S&P 500 ending 2026 at 8,400.
Another guest described the bond market as being hit by “death by a thousand cuts”: supply concerns, weak demand, and uncertainty about the Fed’s reaction function. He said the long end could still stabilize, but the market wants clearer guidance from the Fed and perhaps more support from Treasury on issuance. He thought a September hike is possible if inflation and labor data stay firm, and said even a hold would likely keep long-end yields near current levels.
A former St. Louis Fed president said the Treasury’s move may help tactically, but it does not change the fundamentals of big fiscal deficits and a Fed still on the sidelines. He argued the Fed should act to restore credibility on inflation, noting core PCE above 3% and unemployment at 4.1%, and said September would be a reasonable time to consider a hike or at least signal one later this year.
Key takeaways
- Ed Yardeni said 4% to 5% Treasury yields are back to normal and can coexist with a resilient economy.
- Yardeni kept his year-end S&P 500 target at 8,400, using a 20 multiple and $415 of next-year earnings.
- Gennadiy Goldberg said the long end is facing supply, demand, and Fed-uncertainty pressure all at once.
- Goldberg’s base case is a hold, but he said a September hike is possible if inflation and payrolls stay firm.
- James Bullard said Treasury’s tactical move helps, but the real fix for higher yields is either deficit action or Fed action.
- Bullard said core PCE above 3% and unemployment at 4.1% justify a September hike or a strong signal later in the year.
Notable quotes
“I think the bond market isn't whining. I think the bond market's speaking”
“We believe the long end has been subjected to death by a thousand cuts”
“Our base case is a hold. We think they actually try their best to hold through it”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Pharaoh along with Lisa Abramitz and Amarie Hordern.
Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloombo television weekday mornings from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. Eastern.
Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg terminal, and the Bloomberg business app, stocks fluctuating following a three-day slide as the global bond market route weighs on investor sentiment. Ediadeni of Yardeni Research isn't pushing the panic button just yet, writing, "We've often said that we'll worry about the US government debt problem when the bond vigilantes begin to worry about it.
In recent months, they seem to be stirring all around the world. Ed joins us now for more. Ed, welcome to the program, sir.
It's been orderly. The levels are eye-catching. I get that.
But it's been orderly. They've not been sort of massive moves that I would say were disjointed or were overly volatile. And from your standpoint, what is the dividing line between something you're comfortable with and something you're uncomfortable with?
I think 5%. uh we we already had an example of uh sort of a mini debt panic back in 2023 when the bond yield went from 4% in uh early August to 5% November 1st and uh as an Marie pointed out Treasury Secretary Janet Yalen kind of saved the day uh by doing a mini QE and issuing more in bills uh basically telling the bond vigilantes, "Okay, I get uh you don't want me to increase uh the amount of money I I'm going to raise in the bond market, I'll do it in the bill market.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- us interest rates
- fed policy
- market outlook
- economic indicators
- investment strategy
Companies and tickers mentioned
- TD
- TD Securities
- Yardeni Research
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: August 19th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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