Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: August 26th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 21 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Marvin Loh, Stephanie Roth, Mark Ein
Summary
Stocks and yields were described as steady ahead of more earnings and inflation data, but the main market debate centered on whether the Fed will still need to tighten before year end. The host pressed Marvin Loh of State Street on the odds of another hike, and Marvin argued that the Fed remains divided, with a sizable hawkish bloc still willing to raise rates if inflation does not keep improving. He said recent data has given the Fed more room, but not enough to rule out tightening later in the year.
Stephanie Roth of Wolfe Research took the other side more clearly, saying the recent inflation readings were soft enough to keep the Fed on hold in September. She argued that another round of cooler data, along with likely revisions to PCE calculations and a softer labor backdrop, should let the Fed wait without losing credibility. She also said the market may be overreacting to oil and that the bigger inflation question is whether AI-related spending is beginning to show up more broadly in prices.
Later, Mark Ein of Kastle Systems shifted the conversation to sports as an investable asset class. He argued that major sports are more insulated from AI than most entertainment businesses, and that scarcity, fan demand and relegation risk help explain high valuations in U.S. teams and Premier League clubs. He also said owners have a responsibility to keep events accessible, even as secondary markets push ticket prices higher.
Key takeaways
- Marvin Loh said the Fed is still divided enough that a rate hike later in the year remains on the table if inflation stops improving.
- Stephanie Roth said the latest data is soft enough that the Fed can likely stay on hold in September without losing credibility.
- Roth argued that AI-related inflation may be the most important unresolved risk because tariff and oil pressures are easing.
- Mark Ein said sports assets are more insulated from AI disruption than most entertainment businesses because live experiences retain scarcity and demand.
- Ein said relegation risk is a major reason European football teams trade at different valuations than U.S. franchises.
Notable quotes
“we don't find a reason to fade the view that the Fed will still need to tighten before year end”
“I think it's still um you know, generally as divided as we saw at the beginning of this year”
“I think we're in an environment where the data will look a little bit cooler in the next couple of prints such that the Fed can avoid hiking and do it credibly”
“the biggest thing we should be watching is on the AI related inflation because that's a piece that hasn't fully worked its way through the data”
“At today's valuations, there's meaningfully less downside risk in owning a piece of the Lakers than a piece of Open AI”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Pharaoh along with Lisa Abramitz and Amarie Hordern.
Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg television weekday mornings from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. Eastern.
Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg business app, we begin this hour with stocks and yields holding steady ahead of more earnings and inflation data later this morning. Marvin Low State Street writing, "While recent data has thrown a bit of cold water on the strength of the economy, we don't find a reason to fade the view that the Fed will still need to tighten before year end.
Marvin joins us now for more. Marvin, good morning, sir. It's good to see you.
Do you expect to get a guide from from Kevin Walsh in a few days time on that?
Um, you know what, we're not going to hear from him uh with regard to what he thinks September is going to look like or even December is going to look like. Um, all we can hope for is that we get a little bit more sense into, you know, what his thinking is. um how the Fed's going to actually approach uh the concept of um uh of the reaction function uh and really to give the market a little bit more comfort that July uh is not the way the Fed operates and not the way the new chairman operates.
How do you think the Fed operates and the new chairman operates? — Well, you know, I think I think it's still um you know, generally as divided as we saw at the beginning of this year.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- global macro
- economy
- markets outlook
- investment strategy
- finance news
Companies and tickers mentioned
- STT
- State Street
- Wolfe Research
- Kastle Systems
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: August 26th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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