Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: August 3rd, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 25 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Jeremy Stretch, Sarah Kunst, Gary Cohn
Summary
The discussion opened with Japan’s recent intervention in the yen and the market’s reaction after the Fed’s latest press conference. Jeremy Stretch argued that the move was less a cure than a containment step, because the core pressures are still a weak trade position, higher oil costs, and wide U.S.-Japan rate differentials. He said the intervention mattered more because it appeared coordinated with the U.S. Treasury and because the bond market had already become more unstable after the Fed decision.
Attention then shifted to SpaceX and the broader private-tech valuation complex. Sarah Kunst said the staggered lockup matters more than the headline earnings report, because the real question is who wants to hold the stock and whether Elon Musk and other insiders will buy to support it. She argued the post-IPO decline reflects rising skepticism about giant valuations, cash burn in AI, and Musk’s credibility.
Gary Cohn defended the idea that the Fed should stop over-explaining itself. He said Kevin Warsh is pushing the central bank back toward historic norms, where markets have to price risk without being “spoiled” by constant forward guidance. Cohn argued that higher long rates, a steeper curve, and continued Treasury issuance may already be doing some of the Fed’s work on inflation.
Key takeaways
- Jeremy Stretch said Japan’s yen intervention looks like containment, not a fix, because oil, deficits and U.S.-Japan rate gaps remain unresolved.
- Stretch said the timing made sense because yen shorts were stretched and the Fed-driven move in U.S. yields added volatility.
- Sarah Kunst said SpaceX’s staggered lockup is more important than earnings because it will show who actually wants to hold the stock.
- Kunst argued the post-IPO selloff reflects skepticism about Elon Musk’s promises and a shift toward demanding real fundamentals.
- Gary Cohn said the market has become addicted to forward guidance since 2008 and needs to relearn how to price policy risk.
- Cohn said higher long-term rates and a steeper yield curve are already tightening financial conditions without the Fed doing much.
Notable quotes
“the latest round arguably carries more weight because of the coordinated move by the US Treasury”
“it is seemingly more of a containment issue”
“the market was pretty stretched”
“we're we've been 2 years away from self-driving cars with him, and we always will be, right”
“People liked having the answers to the quiz before they took the test”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts, radio, news. — This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferro, along with Lisa Abramowicz and Amry Houghton. Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app.
Jeremy Stretch at CIBC writing, "Compared to the April-May interventions, the latest round arguably carries more weight because of the coordinated move by the US Treasury." Jeremy joins us now for more. Jeremy, there are some underlying problems in Japan. There is a terms of trade shock, and welcome to the program, buddy. It's always good to see you.
Good morning. — You're facing a terms of trade shock that oil has contributed to. You've got deficit issues as well, a massive rate differentials with the US. Why does this intervention help them fight those three?
Well, indeed, that you are talking about in effect a containment policy because unless the oil price is going to come down materially or unless the interest rate spread between the US and Japan closes exponentially, and that would imply that the BOJ would have to bring forward not not only bring forward their policy tightening but be more aggressive and perhaps the market reprice uh the Fed expectations, it is seemingly more of a containment issue. But, I've just been listening with great interest to your discussion with with Lisa regarding the uh holdings of Treasuries by Japanese investors, and I think that is particularly notable. I think that twist steepening that we did see in terms of the US curve after last Wednesday's Fed decision, I think was also uh notable, and I think the uh if we go back to liberation day in the post post-liberation day period, it was the discipline of the bond market that really exercised uh control on the politicians.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- world markets
- economy
- finance
- economic outlook
- investment
Companies and tickers mentioned
- CM
- IBM
- CIBC
- Cleo Capital
- IBM
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: August 3rd, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
More from Bloomberg Surveillance
-
Stocks Rise as Inflation Data Ease Fed-Hike Worry | Bloomberg Surveillance -
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 13th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance -
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 12th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance -
Jensen Huang Ousted by Nvidia Board as CEO | Bloomberg Surveillance -
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 11th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance -
AI Stocks Rebound as Fed Hike Bets Return | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance, this episode and its artwork belong to Bloomberg. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
