Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: February 10th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 22 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Marvin Loh, Jonathan Lieber, Gregory Daco
Summary
The discussion centered on whether the U.S. economy is strong enough to justify current equity optimism, and whether the market is already pricing in a new policy regime. A strategist at State Street argued that the environment remains supportive for risk, but said it is hard to justify extreme bullishness, especially with the dollar weaker than expected, long yields higher than would usually fit a cutting cycle, and Treasury curves still adjusting to a possible regime change. He said investors may be seeing a healthy rotation rather than a reason to abandon U.S. assets.
The conversation then turned to politics and the Federal Reserve. A guest from Eurasia Group argued that Republicans face a difficult 2026 map because voters are unhappy with the economy, inflation, immigration, and cost of living. He said the White House can likely trim tariffs and push stimulus-style ideas, but those tools look more like window dressing than a fix for the underlying affordability problem.
An economist from EY said the latest retail sales miss fits a broader picture of slowing consumer momentum. He argued that spending is being supported by a narrow slice of households and firms, while labor market softness is pressuring income growth and leaving the recovery on a fragile base.
Key takeaways
- The State Street strategist said it is hard to fade the U.S. equity story, but he does not see a case for aggressively adding risk from here.
- He argued that 10-year yields are higher than expected for a cutting cycle and that the dollar is weaker than the growth backdrop would normally imply.
- The Eurasia Group guest said Democrats enter 2026 with a favorable national environment because voters still blame the president for affordability problems.
- The EY economist said retail sales and consumer spending are softening because labor income is slowing, not because spending power is broad-based.
- He expects almost no job growth after revisions in 2025 and warned that real wage growth is very close to zero.
Notable quotes
“Rotate America, not sell America, which puts treasuries and the dollar most at risk”
“I think it is hard to fade the story”
“The primary season will be more unpredictable than usual. The national environment for 2026 looks very positive for Democrats”
“I think tariffs are likely to come down between now and the end of the year”
“Who benefits from the growth? That is the key question”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Pharaoh along with Lisa Abramitz and Amarie Hordern.
Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloombo television weekday mornings from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. Eastern.
Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg Business app, we begin this hour with stocks on the brink of all-time highs with a slew of data on deck. Marvin Low of State Street writing the following.
We still find the current environment remaining conducive for risk. Rotate America, not sell America, which puts treasuries and the dollar most at risk. Marvin joins us now for more.
Marvin, good morning.
Morning. — 15% for the year ahead. No, you pushing back. — I don't know what accounting he's using. What kind of GDP figures are you and the team looking for? — Yeah, exactly. Exactly. I mean, trend growth is 2%, right? We're above trend growth for the last several quarters. Uh we have a tendency to underestimate the um strength of the US economy, but double digits.
You know why people are bullish though? Maybe not that bullish, but bullish. And it's because we've already had rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. There's taxfree funds to come — Through the next several months. and we're looking at just four companies with capex intentions of $650 billion and when they come to the debt market the market's taken it down really really well. Is it hard to fade that story?
I think it is hard to fade the story. Um you know it might be hard to you know plow more into it at this point but I don't think you're fading that story.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- global macro
- us research
- economy and markets
- investment outlook
- european and emerging markets
Companies and tickers mentioned
- STT
- State Street
- Eurasia Group
- Ernst & Young
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: February 10th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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