Bloomberg Surveillance TV: July 15th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance

Stocks were trading higher into earnings season, and Steve Chiavarone of Federated argued that the market is being driven less by simple beats and misses than by a powerful earnings and margin story. He said expectations for 22% year-over-year profit growth would be the strongest quarter since Q4 2021, with 10 of 11 sectors likely posting gains and healthcare the only laggard. He also said AI capital spending is reshaping winners and losers, and that the chip trade still has room because demand continues to outrun supply.

Chiavarone argued the Fed is not the main driver of the market, even though rate policy matters for smaller companies and lower-income consumers. He said the market is misreading Chairman Powell’s approach as hawkish when it is more about withholding guidance, and he sees little reason to hike rates while inflation is 2.6% and the federal funds rate is 3.75%. On valuations, he said expanding margins justify a higher multiple, which is why his firm sees the S&P 500 reaching 9,000 by the end of next year.

BNY CFO Dermot McDonogh said the bank’s record revenue, asset growth, and 10 consecutive quarters of positive operating leverage reflect both a strong economy and a materially better franchise. He said the firm has invested about half a billion dollars over three years, is keeping expense growth disciplined, and sees AI as a productivity tool already adopted across the company.

Former Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo warned that the U.S. risks slowing its own AI advantage if it ignores workers and communities hit by the buildout. She backed a “grand bargain” that lets America lead in AI while protecting workers, and said broad backlash could follow if companies push ahead without a people strategy.