Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: July 22nd, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 26 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Max Kettner, Subadra Rajappa, John Stankey
Summary
A market strategist from HSBC argued that the next two weeks of earnings matter less for the numbers than for how stocks react to them. He said the S&P 500 has been supported mainly by semis, while the rest of the market has not fully participated, and warned that sentiment among long-only investors is nearing peak bullishness. He expects that if earnings do not broaden the rally, or if they do and positioning becomes even more stretched, investors should begin taking some risk off into September and October.
A macro strategist from Societe Generale said the Fed’s base case is still to hold rates, but markets are increasingly pricing in a hike by the end of the year, likely after the midterm. She pointed to higher oil prices, Japan’s yen move, and rising concern about debt and deficits as drivers of higher real yields, noting that the 10-year U.S. real yield has reached 2.34%, the highest since 2023. She argued the market may force the Fed’s hand if pricing stays this aggressive.
AT&T’s chairman and CEO said the company’s quarter reflected years of investment paying off, with 432,000 monthly wireless phone subscriber additions and nearly 370,000 fiber net adds. He said convergence between broadband and mobile lowers churn, improves brand affinity, and supports strong margins. He also argued AT&T’s fiber and wireless network is well positioned for AI-era demand and that the market will eventually recognize the value of the business.
Key takeaways
- The HSBC strategist said earnings season matters most for market breadth, not just the headline beat rate, and sees risk-off potential if the rally fails to broaden.
- He said long-only investor sentiment is approaching 2021-style peak bullishness, which he views as a warning sign rather than a positive.
- The Societe Generale strategist expects the Fed to hold for now, but said the market is already pricing a hike by year-end, likely after the midterm.
- She said U.S. 10-year real yields at 2.34% are being driven more by deficit concerns and global bond pressures than by inflation alone.
- AT&T’s CEO said 432,000 wireless subscriber additions and nearly 370,000 fiber net adds show the payoff from five years of investment.
- He said AT&T’s convergence model is cutting churn and that AI-related demand should reinforce the value of its fiber network.
Notable quotes
“It may well be time to reduce risk in portfolios after the peak earning season in two weeks time”
“What I'm hearing from you is don't look for the earnings, look for how the market responds to the earnings”
“the market is fully pricing in a hike by the end of the year”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Pharaoh along with Lisa Abramitz and Amarie Hordern.
Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg television weekday mornings from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. Eastern.
Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App, we begin this hour with stocks pulling back after snapping a 3-day slide. Max Ker of HSBC suggesting warning signs are building.
He writes the following. It may well be time to reduce risk in portfolios after the peak earning season in two weeks time. Max joins us now for more.
Max, welcome to the program, buddy. This one surprised me. I get your research every week.
because I was going through the note and I'm always looking for it. When is Max turning less bullish? This note came really really close.
Max, what's changed? Um I think there's a couple of things that changed now when we look at the price action just the last 6 7 weeks. Of course um that's been largely the semian.
So let's be honest if you had told me semis are going to go down into actually a bare market and the overall S&P is actually flat um I would have taken it any day. So that still looks pretty good. But we've got to face it that actually uh outside of that the rest of the S&P isn't yet participating so much.
So I would say now with peak earning season coming in the next to two weeks there's two possibilities either the earning season propels us even higher particularly from a broad-based perspective.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- multi-asset strategy
- global markets
- macroeconomics outlook
- financial research
- telecom sector
Companies and tickers mentioned
- HSBC
- T
- HSBC Bank
- Societe Generale
- AT&T
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: July 22nd, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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