Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: July 28th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 19 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Cameron Dawson, Steven Cook, Matthew Hornbach
Summary
The conversation opened with a sharp selloff in chips and semiconductors, as the host and Cameron Dawson argued that the move is being driven as much by technical unwinding as by fundamentals. Dawson said the sector had become overbought through leverage and flows, and that investors are now questioning whether hyperscalers can keep funding giant capex plans while free cash flow turns negative. She also said competition from lower-cost and open-source AI models could pressure the economics of the largest tech platforms and push valuations lower over time.
The second segment focused on the Middle East, where Steven Cook said the U.S. and Iran’s pause in strikes reflected Washington’s limits rather than a decisive shift in strategy. He argued that Iran’s proxies continue to strike regional infrastructure while Tehran signals openness to talks through Oman. Cook said the Gulf’s business model depends on security, and warned that companies and investors will reassess the region if attacks continue.
The final discussion centered on the Fed’s upcoming meeting. Matthew Hornbach said Morgan Stanley expects the central bank to hold rates steady, with no clear case for a hike yet because inflation expectations remain stable and financial conditions have already tightened. He said a hike later this year is still possible if inflation fails to cool, but for now the market will get more data before September.
Key takeaways
- Cameron Dawson said semiconductor stocks are being hit by both technical unwinding and renewed doubts about hyperscaler spending and margins.
- Dawson argued that free cash flow for big AI spenders is deteriorating because capex is growing faster than operating cash flow.
- Steven Cook said the U.S. paused strikes on Iran because it was running low on munitions and the campaign had diminishing returns.
- Cook said Iran is using proxies to keep pressure on Saudi Arabia and other regional infrastructure while talking through Oman.
- Matthew Hornbach said Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to hold rates steady, with hikes only back on the table if inflation does not cool enough.
- Hornbach said the market may have to wait for two more rounds of economic data before the September Fed decision.
Notable quotes
“The semiconductor profit cycle depends on two big factors. Hypers scale is continuing to spend aggressively and limited new competition entering the space that could challenge margins”
“narrative follows price. So all of these negative narratives on the fundamentals we're talking about is effectively just following the negative price action”
“We know that we are getting growth because of some of this capex investment but effectively the growth is coming in slower than what the capex investment is”
“The Trump administration made it clear that it was standing down because the United States does not have the weaponry to carry on”
“If inflation doesn't come down in the way that they would like to see, rate hikes are on the table”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Pharaoh along with Lisa Abramitz and Amarie Hordern.
Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg television weekday mornings from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. Eastern.
Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. And as always on the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg business app. We begin this hour with the chip selloff building.
Cameron Dawson of New Edge Wealth writing the following. The semiconductor profit cycle depends on two big factors. Hypers scale is continuing to spend aggressively and limited new competition entering the space that could challenge margins.
Markets seem to be questioning both. Cam joins us now for more. Cam, good morning.
Good to see you.
Good morning. That quote just perfectly illustrates this moment we're in right now. We are questioning both. Do you think it's valid to question both?
I I think it is, but I think before we get to the fundamentals, we have to appreciate the technicals because so much of the upside was driven by positioning chases and squeezes and flows. And so what we're experiencing now is effectively the mirror image of that because flows were so aggressive into leverage products within the semiconductor space, not just in the US, but of course in South Korea. What we're seeing is the dynamic is that as that leverage unwinds, you're seeing a lot more downside.
Effectively, these stocks got so overbought by the time you got to the middle of June that even though we've seen things like a 40% draw down in something like SKHENX, you're technically not oversold yet. So, if you look at a name like Micron, yes, it's down over 20%, but it's still 40% above its 200 day moving average.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- macro strategy
- market outlook
- wealth management
- middle east and africa
- investment
Companies and tickers mentioned
- MS
- NewEdge Wealth
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Morgan Stanley
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: July 28th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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