Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: June 17th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: George Goncalves, Steven Cook, Eric Rosengren
Summary
The discussion centered on a possible bond rally, with the guest arguing that inflation has largely peaked, oil has stayed contained despite Middle East risks, and rates may have already seen their highs for 2026. He said recent wage and labor-market data do not show a strong inflation impulse, and that a softer or revised view of jobs data could give the Fed room to cut later this year.
The panel also tied the Fed outlook to the day’s policy meeting, with the guest expecting a gradual shift rather than a dramatic change. He said the committee may remove an easing bias, reset expectations around the neutral rate, and leave the door open to cuts only if inflation and rates continue to ease. He also suggested that any market rally in stocks could temporarily loosen financial conditions and reduce pressure on the Fed.
A separate discussion focused on Iran and a proposed deal that the analyst said heavily favors Tehran. He argued that the agreement appears to preserve uranium enrichment, lift the oil blockade, and omit any constraint on ballistic missiles or proxy forces, making it a tactical gain for the United States but a strategic defeat overall. The analyst said regional countries are already trying to reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, but that the details and timeline remain highly uncertain.
Key takeaways
- The guest argued that inflation concerns have been overstated and that rates may have already peaked for 2026.
- He said the Fed could open a window to cut later this year if oil, rates, and inflation have all topped out.
- The analyst said the Iran deal would let Tehran keep enriching uranium and would not address ballistic missiles or proxy forces.
- He said Gulf producers are trying to build workarounds to reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz, but some countries have far fewer options than others.
- The former Fed president said the new chair is likely to push for less forward guidance, fewer speeches, and a more factual statement.
- He warned that reducing Fed communication could increase uncertainty and volatility even if markets already discount forward guidance less than before.
Notable quotes
“Inflation concerns have been misplaced and rates may have seen the high prints for 26. That plus wars talking hikes off the table is about to unleash a bond rally”
“I think we are entering a um summer of the bond market. I think we probably have seen the high prints for for rates um for a whole host of reasons”
“the United States walks away from this with a lot of tactical battlefield achievements, but, uh, what can only be described as a strategic defeat”
“I expect this meeting is mostly going to be about communications. communications within the committee, uh, communications about the statement, communications with the press conference”
“I don't think we can go back to where we were under Greenspan or Paul Vulker”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Pharaoh along with Lisa Abramitz and Amarie Hordern.
Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloombo television weekday mornings from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. Eastern.
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George Convis of MUFG writing, "Inflation concerns have been misplaced and rates may have seen the high prints for 26. That plus wars talking hikes off the table is about to unleash a bond rally." George joins us here this morning. George, great to see you.
Great to see you. Happy Fed day. — Happy Fed day if you celebrate. a real question about how much this bond market can rally given some of the inflationary pressures yes are tied to oil but also to some other issues as well.
Yeah, look I think we are entering a um summer of the bond market. I think we probably have seen the high prints for for rates um for a whole host of reasons. Look, oil prices even in the midst of like literally a billion plus barrels of like less production getting through the straight of Hormuse managed to stay contained, right?
So like this idea that you're going to see like a second wave of higher oil prices. I I don't buy that. We don't buy that.
We've been uh skeptical of the move in general and inflation has largely come from the inflation from the oil shock and then some second order uh around effects around uh you know some some sort of pricing search charges that were added to core prices.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- us macro strategy
- middle east and africa
- fed policy
- economy and markets
- investment outlook
Companies and tickers mentioned
- MUFG
- MUFG
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: June 17th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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