Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: June 29th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 18 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Alicia Levine, Momei Qu, Nur Cristiani
Summary
Alicia Levine argued that the S&P 500 can still reach 8,000, but the advance will be driven by earnings breadth rather than just AI leaders. She said valuations are not especially stretched, with the market around 21 times forward earnings and still looking for 17% growth next year, but she expects volatility and consolidation as parabolic charts in the memory names cool off. She also said the hyperscalers may deserve another look even though their charts are weak, because management teams are unlikely to let their businesses fade quietly.
Her broader caution was that AI has become a concentrated cross-asset trade. She said spending by a handful of hyperscalers is effectively funding the earnings of dozens of companies, while debt issuance, emerging-market exposure in Korea and Taiwan, and AI-linked bond and equity markets all create correlated risk. She recommended infrastructure and real assets in a higher-inflation world and said portfolio construction now has to account for AI concentration across asset classes.
Momei Qu said the AI story is still bullish, but financing is now the central question. She pointed to rising capex estimates, first around GPUs and now memory and power, and said investors are becoming more cautious about who will fund the build-out and for how long. Nur Cristiani said the USMCA review is likely to produce only modest changes, but the uncertainty still matters for autos, aerospace, Mexico trade flows, and capex decisions tied to North American supply chains.
Key takeaways
- Alicia Levine said the S&P 500 can still reach 8,000 if earnings broaden beyond the AI beneficiaries.
- Levine warned that AI spending and debt are creating concentrated risk across equities, bonds and emerging markets.
- Momei Qu said the market is still bullish on AI, but financing, not technology, is now the key issue.
- Qu said capex pressure is shifting from GPUs to memory and power, making the cost burden harder to ignore.
- Nur Cristiani said the USMCA base case is an extension with minor modifications, but the risk is mispriced in autos and aerospace.
Notable quotes
“the path to 8K is is the earnings, right? It's it's the earnings and the fact that it's not just focused on the AI beneficiaries”
“the question for AI now has shifted from technology to financing, where the question of the day is not just on ROI”
“we have to be cognizant of the risks. And the risks are that you have more or less 20% of the S&P driving the earnings of the rest of the market”
“the risk of that happening is that right now we're running and you guys know this really well. We have been running in an economy that's capex driven for basically two years”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts, radio, news.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferro, along with Lisa Abramowicz and Amry Houghton. Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics.
From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen.
And as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. We begin this hour with stocks looking to bounce back from a week full of tech jitters. Alicia Levine of BNY Mellon writing, "Expect a summer of volatility, a midterm election year, AI backlash, and IPO supply will produce a consolidating market.
Alicia joins us now for more. Alicia, good morning.
Good morning. — Given all of those things, that long long list, what's the road, the path to 8K?
So, the path to 8K is is the earnings, right? It's it's the earnings and the fact that it's not just focused on the AI beneficiaries, but it's actually broadening throughout the S&P. And that's what gets you to the 8,000.
Also, you know, the multiples are really not that high. We're back to 21 times forward earnings in a market that's growing at 23 or 24 times on the earnings side. It's pretty extraordinary, and we're still looking for 17% growth for next year.
So, you're following two very strong years with a multiple that seems fine. But you're going to get volatility. There has to be consolidation here.
I mean, some of those charts are parabolic. With the memory names, you know, like, you know, that's the center of that. And it's going to pull some of the market down with it just because they are the leaders right now, right?
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- equities strategy
- investment strategy
- latam markets
- world markets
- economy and markets
Companies and tickers mentioned
- JPM
- BNY Wealth
- PSP Capital Partners
- JP Morgan Securities
Watch the episode
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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