Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: June 5th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Gil B Luria, Nadia Lovell, Lisa Shalett
Summary
The guests argued that the recent pullback in semiconductors is less a full break in the AI trade than a warning that expectations have gotten too stretched. One guest said Broadcom’s selloff after its results was “a small crack,” not a broader red flag, but stressed that investors have pushed valuations too far by assuming the cycle lasts much longer than it may. Another guest was more cautious, calling the move a red flag and warning that many chip companies are benefiting from pricing power that may not last.
A major theme was the scale of AI capital spending. The guests said hyperscalers are still pouring in cash, with the four largest already earmarking over $700 billion in capex and global AI capex potentially moving toward $800 billion and then close to a trillion dollars. They argued that spending is broadening across memory, compute, networking and software, but also creating more financing pressure, more capital raises and more volatility for markets.
The discussion also turned to the labor market and the Fed. One guest said unemployment looks stable around 4.3%, but wage growth remains important for inflation and that a first rate cut could slip from December into 2027 if labor weakness does not emerge. The guests ended by urging investors to diversify beyond the most crowded AI names and add real assets, infrastructure and other secular growth exposures.
Key takeaways
- One guest said Broadcom’s selloff was “a small crack,” while another called it a warning that semiconductor valuations may be too rich.
- The guests said hyperscalers have already earmarked over $700 billion in capex, with global AI spending potentially rising toward $800 billion and then close to a trillion dollars.
- Gil Luria argued Nvidia at 22 times and Micron at 10 times look safer than Broadcom at 35, AMD at 40 and Intel at 100 times.
- Lisa Shalett said much of the semiconductor rally reflects pricing power that is being mistaken for sustainable productivity gains.
- The guests said the AI trade is broadening beyond mega-cap software into memory, packaging and networking, and investors should diversify across the value chain.
Notable quotes
“We found out how on edge investors are about technology. If the beat isn't big enough, the consequences were severe”
“A small crack. Let's not forget, Broadcom just grew revenue 50%. It grew its AI revenue 143%”
“we continue to think that diversification across AI value chain is quite important”
“We think that global AI capex is going to be over $800 billion. And then we think that that gets to close to a trillion dollars”
“I think that the entire market is one trade, and I think right now we're in the boom part of the trade, uh which means the entire thing is is cyclical”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts, radio, news. — This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferro, along with Lisa Abramowicz and Amory Horton. Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app.
This rally coming undone just a touch. The massive run for semis taking a bit of a breather as potential cracks emerge. Broadcom leading the retreat, adding to losses after erasing over $280 billion in market value.
Gil Luria of D.A. Davidson remaining neutral on the stock while raising his price target. He writes the following, "We found out how on edge investors are about technology.
If the beat isn't big enough, the consequences were severe. Value is shifting quickly as the bottlenecks emerge. Gil joined us now for more.
Gil, welcome. Lisa Shalett called it a bit of a bit of a red flag for these semis trade. Do you consider it a red flag or just a small crack?
A small crack. Let's not forget, Broadcom just grew revenue 50%. It grew its AI revenue 143%.
So, it's a very good result, but investors had now been trained to expect a lot more than that cuz some of the upside results from companies like Intel, AMD, and Dell were so spectacular that investors just raised their expectations too much. You're talking about a cycle and and the semis are always a cycle. This is not any different.
None of us know how long the cycle is going to last. We all speculate and estimate, but it could last through next year and it could last through 2030, and those are very different outcomes.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- market outlook
- economy
- technology research
- global equity
- wealth management
Companies and tickers mentioned
- UBS
- MS
- DA Davidson & Co.
- UBS Financial Services
- Morgan Stanley
- Bloomberg
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: June 5th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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