Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: March 10th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 18 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Nate Thooft, Marc Short, Abigail Watt
Summary
The discussion centered on how a new oil shock could hit growth, inflation, stocks, bonds, and the Fed’s path. The first guest argued that policy uncertainty and higher energy costs could slow economic growth, pressure corporate margins, and keep volatility elevated, but he still treated the shock as temporary rather than a secular stagflation regime. He said sustained oil prices above $100 a barrel for several months could cut developed-market growth by about half a percentage point and lift inflation by about 1% a year, but expected markets and policymakers to ultimately look through it.
The conversation then shifted to geopolitics and U.S. politics, with a panelist saying the president has more control than anyone else but not total control over the conflict, and warning that higher oil prices are already colliding with affordability concerns heading into the midterms. He said the administration’s choices on sanctions, the Jones Act, and Russian oil showed how politically sensitive energy prices are.
Abigail Watt of UBS said the oil shock is a two-sided risk for monetary policy because it may support inflation while also weakening a labor market that already looks vulnerable. She still expects 50 basis points of Fed cuts this year, likely in the second half, but said oil could offset some of the fiscal support for consumers, especially lower-income households.
Key takeaways
- The first guest said policy uncertainty and higher energy prices could slow growth, raise inflation, and hurt corporate margins, but he still expects the shock to fade.
- He estimated that if oil stays above $100 a barrel for several months, developed-market growth could fall by about 0.5 percentage point and inflation rise about 1% a year.
- The first guest said investors should expect lower total returns than over the last 20 years and diversify beyond stocks and bonds.
- The panelist said rising oil prices are politically dangerous because affordability is already the top issue for voters heading into the midterms.
- Abigail Watt of UBS expects 50 basis points of Fed cuts this year, but sees the oil shock as a two-sided risk because it can weaken consumers and the labor market at the same time.
Notable quotes
“We could see economic growth diminish if policy uncertainty increases. Corporate profit margins get crim due to higher energy input costs”
“The reality is we are now in a world where equity valuations are high. we have uncertainty around yields and they may not go down a lot”
“the stock bond correlation has been a problem and will continue to be a problem”
“I think the president always likes optionality, which I think you've witnessed over the last 10 days”
“I think perhaps what's underappreciated is that this is coming alongside a point where the labor market looks a little vulnerable at this juncture still”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Pharaoh along with Lisa Abramitz and Amarie Hordern.
Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloombo television weekday mornings from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. Eastern.
Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. And as always on the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg business app. Let's get to the view on Wall Street this morning.
Nate Turf of Manual Life writing, "We could see economic growth diminish if policy uncertainty increases. Corporate profit margins get crim due to higher energy input costs and higher gas prices will act as a consumer tax. Nate joins us now for more.
Nate, good morning.
Thank you for having me.
What is the price for all this volatility? I mean I think the reality is we have a big pogo stick going on right we have a lot of up and down and we don't have a lot of forward traction and the uncertainty is very very high I think the price is that we live in a world where volatility continues to be the theme at least in the near future this to your point earlier the signal is there is and everyone wants us to conclude quickly and the duration of it to be limited but the reality is the on the ground activity and the idea that multiple players are involved could lead this to last a lot longer than many people think
You've heard the comparisons to 2022 and this moment right here. What do you think the major differences are? I think the comparison is that you have energy prices going up.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- economy
- markets
- finance
- investment
- world markets
Companies and tickers mentioned
- MFC
- UBS
- Manulife Investment Management
- UBS Securities
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: March 10th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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