Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: March 18th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 19 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Dan Pickering, Neil Dutta, Seth Jones
Summary
The conversation centered on how the conflict around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz is reshaping oil, inflation, and policy. A guest from Pickering Energy Partners argued that if oil flow remains constrained, crude has a new floor and may need to rise 20% to 30% from current levels to balance supply and demand. He said the market is already pricing a longer-term premium in 2027 and 2028 futures, and that a prolonged shutdown could push oil to $125 and trigger recession risk.
The discussion then turned to the Federal Reserve. A guest from Renaissance Macro Research said the Fed is likely to revise up core PCE inflation in its projections while leaving unemployment assumptions near 4.4%, making it more likely that a rate cut is removed altogether. He argued that higher energy prices feed into weaker consumer conditions, with gasoline on a glide path toward $4 a gallon nationally and little evidence that tax refunds or savings buffers can offset the shock.
A CSIS analyst said the U.S. and Israel have shown strong precision-strike and air-defense capabilities, but the campaign also exposes limits in munitions stockpiles and leaves the U.S. more vulnerable to other theaters, especially China and Ukraine. He said allies in Europe and Asia are wary of being pulled into the conflict, while China is watching closely even if it is not ready to make a move on Taiwan now.
Key takeaways
- Pickering Energy Partners argues that a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could leave crude with a much higher floor and push prices 20% to 30% above current levels.
- The guest from Renaissance Macro Research expects the Fed to raise its core PCE inflation forecast and sees a rate cut becoming less likely if oil feeds into inflation.
- The guest from Renaissance Macro Research said U.S. consumers are more fragile than in 2022 because real incomes are weak and excess savings have already been drawn down.
- The CSIS analyst said the U.S. is burning through scarce munitions while focused on Iran, which could leave it less prepared for China or Ukraine.
- The CSIS analyst said China is observing U.S. strike and air-defense methods closely, but he does not think Beijing is positioned to move on Taiwan right now.
Notable quotes
“If the US just stops, then Iran holds the keys to chaos by threatening future straight shutdowns”
“At some point, uh price is going to have to solve the supply demand equation”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Pharaoh along with Lisa Abramitz and Amarie Hordern.
Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloombo television weekday mornings from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. Eastern.
Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. And as always on the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg business app. Dan Pickering of Pickering Energy Partners writing, "If the US just stops, then Iran holds the keys to chaos by threatening future straight shutdowns.
This would create a perpetual risk premium on oil prices. Dan joins us now for more. Dan, welcome to the program.
Let's build on that last line. It's important. Do you think this is regime change for the price of crude?
Uh it's certainly putting a lower floor in on crude and it really does depend as Maria was saying it depends on things that are very difficult to understand and and predict and so if we end the war in Iran without some sort of definitive action that controls the straits of Hormuz there's going to be a higher price to crude is it going to be triple digits? Not necessarily. But it will certainly not go as low as it's been recently.
Dan, we've watched the dominoes fall over the past two weeks as the energy couldn't move through the straight of form. Production started being cut and now we're in a different phase. They're finding workarounds.
First, there was the pipeline, the East West pipeline in Saudi Arabia. Now there's other workarounds, too. What phase are we in at the moment?
Yeah, we as the market tightens, everyone looks for alternatives.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- world markets
- economy
- finance
- investment
- international security
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Pickering Energy Partners
- Renaissance Macro Research
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: March 18th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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