Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: March 3rd, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 18 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Torsten Slok, Mastin Robeson, Ryan Petersen
Summary
Markets are reacting to the Middle East conflict through higher oil prices, a global bond selloff, and growing fears that the shock could turn stagflationary. The guest from Apollo argued that the key issue is how long the disruption lasts: if energy prices stay elevated, inflation rises first and GDP later starts to weaken, forcing the Federal Reserve to balance inflation risk against labor-market damage. He said Europe is more exposed than the US because of its heavier energy dependence and because the ECB and Bank of England focus more narrowly on inflation.
The conversation also highlighted how much room the US still has to absorb the shock, with AI spending, industrial investment, tax refunds, and fiscal stimulus still supporting growth. But the guest warned that this strength also makes it easier for inflation pressures to build on top of an already elevated core PCE reading. He said average tax refunds could rise from $3,000 to $4,000 per family, implying roughly $100 billion in extra consumer spending.
A separate defense discussion focused on Iran’s military response, the risk of cyber escalation, and the vulnerability of modern air and missile defense. Later, Ryan Petersen of Flexport said the conflict is already disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, with container and air-freight capacity being pulled offline and ocean carriers preparing for sharply higher prices and longer delays.
Key takeaways
- The Apollo economist said the conflict is a stagflationary shock: prices rise first, and GDP can fall if it persists.
- He said Europe is more vulnerable than the US because of its greater energy dependence and more inflation-focused central banks.
- He estimated average US tax refunds could rise to $4,000 per family, implying about $100 billion of extra consumer spending in March through May.
- The major general said Iran’s response appears scripted but leadership is fragmented, raising operational uncertainty.
- Ryan Petersen said 0.6% of global container shipping capacity is already effectively removed, with ocean freight prices expected to jump sharply.
Notable quotes
“The key issue is the duration of the shock. Markets may quickly get used to a situation that could last weeks or even months”
“Yeah, because this is a stlflationary impulse. It's actually quite similar to what we saw with the trade war”
“the challenge for Europe is that they depend more on energy”
“So over the next several months, we're going to get quite a lift in consumer spending”
“0.6% of all the container shipping capacity in the world is taken out”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Pharaoh along with Lisa Abramitz and Amarie Hordern.
Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloombo television weekday mornings from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. Eastern.
Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen and as always on the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. So, here's the latest this morning. Global bonds seeing their biggest selloff since May with the Middle East conflict reigniting inflation fears.
Thson of Apollo writing, "The key issue is the duration of the shock. Markets may quickly get used to a situation that could last weeks or even months. Torson joins us now for more.
Toss, welcome to the program. Does this shock have the potential to become an economic issue in the months to come? Yeah, because this is a stlflationary impulse.
It's actually quite similar to what we saw with the trade war. Prices are going to go up and ultimately if it persists GDP is going to go down. So this creates a huge headache for the Federal Reserve because the Federal Reserve now needs to assess the dual mandate.
Where is the hit the hardest? Is the hit the hardest on inflation? Should they worry more about inflation going up or should they begin to worry about the downside impact on the labor market?
That's why this is a complicated shock just like we saw with the trade war, just like we saw with Ukraine, Russia and thus like we're seeing today. Relatively speaking, is it a bigger problem for the Bank of England for the ECB?
Well, the challenge for Europe is that they depend more on energy.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- market outlook
- economy
- investment
- international trade
- logistics
Companies and tickers mentioned
- APO
- Apollo Management
- Flexport
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: March 3rd, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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