Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: May 18th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 23 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Terry Haines, Michael O'Leary, Veronica Clark
Summary
The discussion centered on how renewed Middle East tensions are reshaping markets, airline economics, and U.S. policy signaling. The host and Terry Haines argued that the administration is using a mix of pressure and ambiguity on Iran, while markets should watch the Strait of Hormuz as the key transmission channel for oil, trade, and geopolitics. Haines said Republicans can likely defend the president’s Iran rhetoric politically, and he framed the U.S. approach as part carrot, part stick.
Michael O’Leary of Ryanair said the airline is insulated by hedging 80% of its jet fuel through March 2027 at $67 a barrel, even as rising oil prices and conflict worries hit the broader industry. He said Ryanair’s record full-year profit, 28 million passengers, and 2.26 billion euros of profit after tax position it to keep dominating Europe’s short-haul market, while weaker rivals may fail if fuel costs stay elevated.
Veronica Clark of Citi argued the Fed could still cut rates three times this year if labor-market weakness emerges over the summer. She said the key is rising unemployment, softer monthly inflation, and early signs in jobless claims, even though current data still look too firm for an immediate shift.
Key takeaways
- Terry Haines said the administration’s Iran messaging is meant to be both a warning and a bargaining tool, with the Strait of Hormuz the market’s key signal.
- Haines argued that most Republicans can absorb the president’s Iran stance in a midterm year because only a limited number of races are truly competitive.
- Michael O’Leary said Ryanair has hedged 80% of its jet fuel needs to March 2027 at $67 a barrel, limiting near-term fuel risk.
- O’Leary said Ryanair’s 2.26 billion euros of profit after tax and 28 million passengers show it can keep pressuring weaker European carriers.
- Veronica Clark said the Fed can still cut three times this year if summer labor data weaken and monthly inflation cools before the September meeting.
Notable quotes
“The only thing that matters when I'm talking about Iran, they can't have a nuclear weapon”
“we typically hedge 80% of our fuel. We're 80% hedged out to March 27 67 bucks a barrel”
“We just reported record full year results. 28 million passengers, 2.26 billion euros profit after tax”
“Gradual weakening in demand will lead to a rising unemployment rate in the summer months”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Pharaoh along with Lisa Abramitz and Amarie Hordern.
Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloombo television weekday mornings from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. Eastern.
Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg business app this morning, the president's nuclear red line.
The only thing that matters when I'm talking about Iran, they can't have a nuclear weapon. I don't think about Americans financial situation, and I don't think about anybody. I think about one thing. We cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon. That's all.
So, here's the latest this morning. President Trump issuing a warning to Iran saying the quote clock is ticking for Thran to make a deal. To build on this, Terry Hayes of Pangia Policy. Terry, welcome back to the program. Let's set the stage. You're a Republican in a tight race facing down a midterm election. What are you thinking about the messaging coming from the president?
Um, I think the I think the quotes unfortunate, of course, but the uh the context can be built on if I'm if I'm that person. You know, the the president's ultimate point here is that kind of tightly bound around the the quote in question is that you can't have you can't let Iran have a nuclear weapon. Uh Republicans are four square behind the president in that.
Uh and uh so I think you can make that case and uh and and push with voters number one. Number two, there's only you know a handful of races, a dozen or more that are that are genuinely competitive.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- world markets
- economic outlook
- investment strategy
- finance news
- macroeconomics
Companies and tickers mentioned
- RYAAY
- C
- Pangaea Policy
- Ryanair
- Citigroup
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: May 18th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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