Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 3rd, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 22 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Bob Michele, Tobin Marcus, Dan Ives
Summary
The discussion centered on whether the bond market, credit spreads, and AI-related capital spending are being pressured by a narrower set of risks than the broader market is pricing. Bob Michele argued that the real stress in credit is concentrated in hyperscalers and AI-linked deals, while most other issuance is still pricing and clearing well, helped by yield-seeking demand. He also said the Treasury could ease long-end pressure by eliminating the 20-year bond and pushing more funding toward shorter maturities.
Michele tied the November election to both data-center regulation and bond-market volatility. He said gubernatorial outcomes in states like Texas, Oklahoma, and Georgia could shape whether new data centers face conditions or a pause, and he framed a Republican sweep as the worst case for credit because it could revive fiscal-spend chatter. By contrast, he said a blue sweep would be better for Treasuries but potentially negative for credit due to more political confrontation in Washington.
Tobin Marcus argued that polling is overstating Democratic strength, especially in red states, but said betting markets have largely tracked the same errors. Dan Ives focused on Anthropic’s planned IPO and said valuation pressure reflects how much capital AI firms will need to spend, with investors becoming less willing to finance companies that cannot show a path to monetization quickly. He described the AI trade as entering a “gut check” phase with clearer winners and losers.
Key takeaways
- Bob Michele said AI-linked and hyperscaler credit spreads are wider, but most other deals are still clearing with only modest widening.
- Michele argued a Republican sweep could be worst for bonds if it revives expectations for more fiscal spending and higher deficits.
- Michele said eliminating the 20-year Treasury could reduce long-end supply pressure and help fund more issuance in the front end.
- Tobin Marcus said polling likely overstates Democratic strength in red states, though betting markets have often mirrored the same polling errors.
- Dan Ives said Anthropic’s valuation debate reflects rising capital needs and a market that is becoming less tolerant of weak monetization timelines.
Notable quotes
“investor disappointment in hyperscala earnings is less from AI endeavors and more from traditional business whose revenues are paying for AI capex but growing at low double-digit rates”
“they're pretty isolated. We looked at uh yield changes quarter to date and granted it's a small sample but when you look at the AI and related the hyperscalers you're seeing credit spreads out 25 to 30 basis points”
“if the Republicans manage to win those uh gubernatorial races, you may see conditions around data center build”
“I think it's good for treasuries and I think it puts credit at a bit of risk here because you're going to have a Congress that can be emboldened to antagonize the administration”
“The deal still gets done in our view, but valuation will be the question”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Pharaoh along with Lisa Bramitz and Amarie Hordern.
Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg television weekday mornings from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. Eastern.
Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg business app, we begin this hour with stocks wavering on fresh tech fears. Bob Michael of JP Morgan writing, "Inves investor disappointment in hyperscala earnings is less from AI endeavors and more from traditional business whose revenues are paying for AI capex but growing at low double-digit rates.
Bob joins us now for more. Bob, good morning.
Good morning. — Good to see you. Talk me through the cracks emerging in your credit space right now. How isolated are they?
Uh they're pretty isolated. We looked at uh yield changes quarter to date and granted it's a small sample but when you look at the AI and related the hyperscalers you're seeing credit spreads out 25 to 30 basis points. When you look at the rest of the deals they're out 2 to four basis points.
Yesterday was a great example with that. Oracle comes to market. It widens spreads a little bit.
The deal ends up going fine. I think three and a half times overs subscribe. I mean, we've been here, but I've been here before.
I've heard a lot of moaning about the high yield market and narrow credit spreads. And really, you have to buy stuff that's 200 over that 7%. And there you have it.
Um, you have tripleB rated Oracle 10 years at 8%.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- us policy politics
- economy
- financial markets
- investment strategy
- world markets
Companies and tickers mentioned
- JPM
- J.P. Morgan Investment Management
- Wolfe Research
- Yorkville Ives & Co.
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 3rd, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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