Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 5th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 26 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Manish Kabra, George Pollack, Stephen Miran
Summary
Stocks held steady after the post-midterm rally while a guest argued the bigger setup is in rates, not politics. The guest said history favors equities after gridlock and repeated a year-end S&P 500 target of 8,000, arguing that falling oil prices, lower crack spreads, and a peak in bond yields could end the S&P 500’s derating phase. He also said the market’s next leg depends on whether 10-year Treasury yields can fall to 4%, which he framed as the trigger for broader escape velocity and a possible move toward S&P 10,000.
The conversation then turned to the political fallout from the election. A guest said JD Vance’s post-election role is difficult to square with governing, and suggested Republicans may ultimately choose a 2028 nominee not tied to the administration. The guest also highlighted Texas as a newly hostile environment for data centers, warning that anti-data-center legislation could advance quickly in the state legislature.
A third guest argued the Fed is still too tight. He said the labor market looks better, but not strong enough to justify more hikes, and he blamed much of the improvement on foreign-born labor-force effects tied to immigration policy. He also said tariffs did not materially drive inflation, called the September rate hike a mistake, and argued that less Fed forward guidance would raise term premium and steepen the curve.
Key takeaways
- A guest kept a year-end S&P 500 target of 8,000, arguing that a peak in bond yields and lower oil prices could end the market’s derating phase.
- The guest said a 4% 10-year Treasury yield would open the door to S&P 10,000 by improving the conditions for a broader equity rally.
- George Pollock said Republicans may prefer a 2028 nominee outside the administration, with JD Vance’s political position looking difficult after the midterms.
- Pollock warned that Texas’ new political map could produce serious anti-data-center legislation and make the state less friendly to AI infrastructure.
- Stephen Miran said the Fed is still too tight, the September hike was a mistake, and tariffs were too small to explain the inflation surge.
Notable quotes
“Under a Republican president and divided government, the S&P 500 was positive 6 months later in all nine cases”
“I think you can lean on uh the history a bit too much this time”
“we have seen cyclical peak in bond yields and if we have seen cyclical peak in bond yield I can comfortably say we have seen end of the derating phase of the S&P”
“I think we'll see more honesty from those who are not stuck with the administration”
“I still don't think I would have hiked rates in September”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Pharaoh along with Lisa Bramitz and Amarie Hordern.
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We begin this hour with stocks holding steady following a post-midterm rally. Manish Kabra of Sockchun maintaining a year-end S&P 500 target of 8,000, writing, midterms have historically been bullish with one scenario standing out. Under a Republican president and divided government, the S&P 500 was positive 6 months later in all nine cases. Manish joins us in studio today. Great to see you. Thank you for being here.
Pleasure. — So let's start with that. Uh how much can you lean into history given how historic this moment really is?
Yeah, I I think you can lean on uh the history a bit too much this time and and you try to see what really releases pressure for markets is you nine out of nine times equity up 3 months, 6 months, 12 months post, you know, post this kind of gridlock backdrop. It's only because bond deals come down you know as an eight out of 10 times historically have seen post elections bond deals coming down and that I think has marked a literally end of derating phase of S&P 500 as we all know S&P has gone from 24 times to 18 times the moment we get you know the bond market defining the pace of you know the speed of the bull market that takes a a a breather and that really gives lot of ammunition for equity guys to get into it.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- us equity strategy
- us policy
- capital management
- world markets
- economic outlook
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Societe Generale London
- Signum Global Advisors
- Hudson Bay Capital Management
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 5th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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