Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 26th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 20 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Noah Weisberger, Neil Dutta, Jessica Taylor
Summary
The discussion centered on whether the recent selloff in parts of tech and credit is a healthy reset or the start of something broader. A guest from BCA Research argued that the pain is still mostly isolated to lower-quality AI and cloud names, while hyperscalers and software remain stronger on a relative basis. He said investors should stay overweight tech but favor quality, and he framed upcoming earnings and Anthropic’s market debut as possible clearing events for the trade.
The conversation then shifted to monetary policy, where a guest from Renaissance Macro said the Fed is likely to skip a move this week but that does not change the odds of hikes later this year or early next year. He argued financial conditions have eased enough to justify caution now, but not enough to solve the inflation problem. In his view, the Fed has been too optimistic about inflation for too long, and waiting only increases the risk that more tightening becomes necessary.
Politics rounded out the hour. A guest from The Cook Political Report said Republicans are now defending more Senate and gubernatorial races than expected, with Mississippi and South Carolina looking more vulnerable and Ohio turning more competitive. She also said polling remains useful when viewed through trends rather than one-off results, and that candidate quality and fundraising can still swing several key races.
Key takeaways
- The guest from BCA Research said the market pain in AI and cloud stocks is still mostly isolated, with hyperscalers and software holding up better.
- He said investors should stay overweight tech but focus on quality, not a broad risk-on move into small caps.
- The guest from Renaissance Macro expects the Fed to skip this week but still pencil in more hikes later, because inflation remains too sticky.
- He argued financial conditions are not restrictive enough yet to justify a pause in tightening.
- The Cook Political Report’s Jessica Taylor said Mississippi and South Carolina have become more competitive for Republicans, while Ohio has tilted toward Democrats in the governor’s race.
- Taylor said trends in reputable polling matter more than any single survey, even if rural areas may be under-sampled.
Notable quotes
“stay overweight tech, but go for quality within it. The Q3 test of whether capex growth is normalizing or falling off a cliff”
“I think the quality stocks on a relative basis you know the hyperscalers in particular software names are doing better and I think that's probably a rational way to trade right here”
“it is a big issue because it's it's certainly breaking through everything that we see indications of there in Ohio”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Pharaoh along with Lisa Abramitz and Amarie Hordern.
Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloombo television weekday mornings from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. Eastern.
Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. We begin this hour with stocks just about edging higher on the S&P 500 on hopes that earnings can pull chip makers out of the worst weekly stretch of the year so far.
Noah Weissberger of BCA Research writing stay overweight tech, but go for quality within it. The Q3 test of whether capex growth is normalizing or falling off a cliff. Noah joins us now for more.
Noah, good morning.
Good morning. Good to be here. — It's good to see you. It's been a race to raise capital all year. Is the market starting to to push back a bit more?
I think you've definitely seen the way the market's trading. You know, we're down a little bit at the index. There's tremendous amount of nervousness among the clients we speak to.
And I think you're seeing, if I had to argue back against that broader nervousness, I think you're seeing a market that's been pretty disciplined beneath the index level, right? So, the core, you know, the core weaves, the nebuses, the neoclouds are really getting punished. uh but I think the quality stocks on a relative basis you know the hyperscalers in particular software names are doing better and I think that's probably a rational way to trade right here.
Do you think that pain remains isolated or spreads?
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- us equity strategy
- macro economic research
- senate and governor politics
- market outlook
- world markets
Companies and tickers mentioned
- BCA Research
- Renaissance Macro
- The Cook Political Report
- Bloomberg
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 26th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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