Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 28th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 24 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Gita Gopinath, Brian Gardner, Lisa Shalett
Summary
The episode centered on a Fed that may skip this meeting even as markets debate whether it is becoming a more disruptive or more uncertain institution. A guest argued that the central bank can afford to delay a 25 basis-point hike until December, but also said the Fed is operating amid unusually high uncertainty from energy prices, AI-driven demand, and the possibility of a market correction. The same guest said the Fed should not try to burst an AI bubble, only respond if inflation stays above target for too long.
A second segment focused on the midterm elections and what a Republican or Democratic sweep could mean for Washington. The analyst said President Donald Trump’s travel schedule signals real concern for Republican-held seats, but still judged Republicans slightly favored to keep the Senate. The analyst also argued that even if Democrats win, the next Congress is likely too crowded to deliver heavy-handed AI or data-center regulation, with only light-touch legislation likely to emerge.
The final discussion returned to markets, where a guest said big tech earnings should reinforce the current capex boom, with year-over-year spending up over 100% this year and still up over 50% next year. The guest said the key bottlenecks are shifting from chips to power and electricity, while credit markets are becoming more discriminating even as liquidity remains ample. The guest also said the AI financing boom looks bubble-like, but not yet close to popping.
Key takeaways
- A guest said the Fed can skip this meeting and still wait for a 25 basis-point hike in December without much damage to financing conditions.
- The same guest said the Fed should not try to burst an AI bubble, and should focus only on whether inflation stays above target for too long.
- Brian Gardner said Trump’s campaign stops signal concern, but he still sees Republicans with a slight edge to retain the Senate.
- Brian Gardner said even a Democratic sweep would likely produce only light-touch AI and data-center regulation because Congress will be crowded with must-pass items.
- Lisa Shalett said big tech capex is still in a midcycle boom, with spending up over 100% this year and expected to rise another 50% next year.
- Lisa Shalett said the next bottleneck is power, not semiconductors, and that credit is tightening selectively even as liquidity remains available.
Notable quotes
“I think it does I think uh you know there is still tremendous uncertainty about the outlook”
“Fed should certainly not go out there specifically to burst a bubble. I mean, that would be a terrible idea”
“The amount of buildout that's we're expecting over the next year is over a trillion and a half”
“I think we're going to get blowout earnings. I think things are going to be uh very consistent with uh where we are, which is we are in a midcycle capex boom”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Pharaoh along with Lisa Abramitz and Amarie Hordern.
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Either we've got the old Fed or a new Fed. Either that guidance from them matters or it doesn't. — Yeah. If this is a new Fed, though, think about how disruptive that would be to this market given how mispriced people are to the idea of uh the chance of some sort of Fed rate hike today.
Let's build on this conversation. and the former IMF deputy managing director and global economics lab founding director Gita Gopernath joins us now for more Gita welcome to the program we've been looking forward to catching up with you does this Fed have the luxury of skipping this meeting
I think it does I think uh you know there is still tremendous uncertainty about the outlook you know they could have done a hike but given where we are right now in terms of market expectations I don't expect that they're going to have a huge disruptive announcement uh today. So there's December. December is where everybody expects there's going to be a 25 bips hike.
It's okay. I think it doesn't one 25 bits delay for a couple of months doesn't make that big a difference to uh financing conditions or to tightening monetary conditions. So I think it's okay.
Do you think though that the uncertainty premium that's been injected into the market over the lack of an understanding of the reaction function has been a very expensive policy at the very least?
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- economy
- financial markets
- investment
- policy strategy
- world markets
Companies and tickers mentioned
- SF
- MS
- Stifel
- Morgan Stanley
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 28th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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