Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: September 16th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 24 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Gina Martin Adams, Stuart Russell, Jim Zelter
Summary
The discussion centered on a market that is absorbing higher rates, higher long yields, and still-strong equities because of unusually strong growth and capital spending. Gina Martin Adams argued that the Fed’s latest move would not change the broader outlook, saying the market is already positioned for a tightening cycle and that the real driver is “the largest capital spending boom in at least 150 years of US history.” She said higher oil prices may eventually dent consumers and transportation, but the bigger story is technology-linked investment feeding GDP, earnings, and real rates.
The program then shifted to AI safety, where a professor argued that today’s large language models are black boxes that cannot be certified safe the way aircraft or reactors are. He said liability alone is not enough; regulators need behavioral red lines, testing, and market-access requirements before deployment. He warned that pouring more money into the current technology path is unlikely to solve the underlying safety problem.
Jim Zelter of Apollo said the AI buildout is creating a huge financing opportunity across debt and equity, but Apollo is focusing on capital-efficient, lower-risk exposures where the margin of safety is strongest. He said the cycle will require “any and all precincts” of capital, while companies closer to the infrastructure and hardware may benefit faster than the model developers themselves.
Key takeaways
- Gina Martin Adams said the Fed’s move was too small to alter the outlook, because growth and capital spending are still driving both equities and bonds.
- Adams argued that the U.S. is in “the largest capital spending boom in at least 150 years,” with AI-related investment supporting GDP and earnings.
- The professor said AI safety cannot rely on liability alone and needs pre-market certification, testing, and hard behavioral red lines.
- Jim Zelter said Apollo sees financing demand across the AI stack, but prefers debt and other structures with stronger downside protection.
- Zelter said the infrastructure buildout is so large that no single asset class can fund it, so capital will come from public and private markets together.
Notable quotes
“the largest capital spending boom in at least 150 years of US history”
“we need the kinds of safety guarantees that we have for nuclear reactors and airplanes and so on”
“the only guarantee we can get is that they are not safe”
“The sheer size of the AI infrastructure buildout is unprecedented”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Pharaoh along with Lisa Abramitz and Amarie Hordern.
Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg television weekday mornings from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. Eastern.
Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. We begin this hour with stocks and bonds edging KA ahead of the Fed's latest decision.
Gina Martin Adams of HP Wealth Management writing the 10-year is already extremely oversold, but the longerterm drivers of high yields appear unlikely to fade anytime soon. Gina joins us now for more. Gina, welcome back.
Thank you. — An old friend of ours and an old friend of this program. It's good to see you in person. — Absolutely. You, too. Great. Let's talk about this decision later on this afternoon. What an appearance. What a time for it. 25 basis points. Does it influence your outlook?
Uh, no, not necessarily. It's too small to really influence the outlook. And I also think that the market is priced for an emerging Fed tightening cycle.
So, it it looks like what we have is the same more of the same. Rates are going higher. Stocks are probably going higher longer term, but a little bit of volatility in the short run.
And frankly, volatility this time of year is not unexpected. It is September. That's the only month of the year in which you normally see stocks fall.
So, we will likely see volatility this fall. But does it really change the longerterm perspective? Not necessarily.
We need to see a downtrend in earnings growth or some sort of change in economic fundamentals to get really different outcomes for
What is it about this backdrop at the moment that's leading to both higher rates and higher equities?
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- economy outlook
- market strategy
- investment themes
- global markets
- finance news
Companies and tickers mentioned
- APO
- Apollo Global Management
- HB Wealth Management
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: September 16th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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