Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: September 25th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 24 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Peter Tchir, Kate Kalutkiewicz, Santiago Pena
Summary
Markets were driven by easing crude and bond pressure on hopes for a ceasefire deal, but the macro guest argued that investors are still too quick to price in good news. He said the market has shifted into a “show me” phase, with oil the clearest place for further adjustment and bonds having already priced in a lot of the Treasury buyback story. He also argued that thin, algo-driven liquidity is keeping oil and Treasuries unusually linked, and that any real move will come only when the underlying policy or supply picture changes.
The conversation widened into energy, inflation, and industrial policy. The guest said diesel is now dictating the trading landscape, that export restrictions would be a long-term negative for the U.S. as a place to do business, and that the durable themes are global inflation, higher yields, energy, and infrastructure. He was notably bullish on energy producers, including BP, Royal Dutch Shell, and Total, while remaining skeptical that Europe’s energy policy has truly changed. He also linked the rise of AI and data centers to a need for more domestic refining, power, and industrial capacity.
The trade segment argued that the U.S.-China summit looked more like managed competition than a reset. The guest said the administration’s north star is domestic resiliency and limiting dependence on China for critical materials, especially rare earths. The final interview with Paraguay’s president reinforced that theme from a different angle: he pitched Taiwan ties, low taxes, abundant renewable energy, and a data center buildout as reasons Paraguay can attract capital even as global yields rise.
Key takeaways
- The macro guest said markets are still overreacting to rumor and hope, and that oil is the most likely place for a further repricing.
- He argued Treasury buybacks are not a true “put” because the Treasury is only buying liquid bonds and not trying to force yields lower.
- He was bullish on global energy, infrastructure, and energy-linked equities, and bearish on bonds because he expects higher inflation.
- The trade guest said the U.S.-China framework is centered on domestic resiliency and reducing dependence on China for critical inputs like rare earths.
- Paraguay’s president said low taxes, cheap renewable power, and Taiwan ties are helping the country attract data-center investment and foreign capital.
Notable quotes
“Markets seem to react positively to any story, rumor, or hope that is positive. That relationship might need to change”
“It's almost a show me sort of stage where, yeah, we need to see real progress on this and real shipments to really get comfortable”
“This is not all in trying to get the yields down otherwise we would have bought all six billion or more and said this is dirt cheap”
“I would say I'm getting extremely bullish on energy globally and anything that feeds on the energy”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Pharaoh along with Lisa Abramitz and Amarie Hordern.
Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg television weekday mornings from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. Eastern.
Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg business app, we begin this hour with stocks creeping as crude and bond pressure eases on hopes for a homeless deal. Peter Cher Academy writing, "Markets seem to react positively to any story, rumor, or hope that is positive.
That relationship might need to change. Pete joins us now for more. Pete, good morning.
Good morning.
Just elaborate on that if you can. What do you mean by You know, I think as you Lisa just said, the markets now finally starting to realize we shouldn't get overly excited about these talks, right? It's for a while felt like anytime we had talks, we, you know, you know, sold off on oil.
Anytime there was actually physical damage done to oil pipelines, we kind of shoved it off. And I think we're starting to shift. It's almost a show me sort of stage where, yeah, we need to see real progress on this and real shipments to really get comfortable.
And some of that's going on, but not enough.
Where do you want to see more of an adjustment in bonds, in equities? Where do you expect to see it? You know, I would think in oil prices, I think that could go a bit higher. I think oil bonds, if anything, maybe got ahead of themselves a little bit.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- macro strategy
- economy
- financial markets
- trade policy
- paraguay
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: September 25th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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