Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: September 28th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 23 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Bob Michele, Lindsey Piegza, Henrietta Treyz
Summary
Stocks fell as yields and crude climbed, and Bob Michele of J.P. Morgan Asset Management argued the selloff in bonds was a buying opportunity rather than a reason to turn bearish. He said the move in yields was driven by a mix of higher oil prices, hawkish Fed commentary, and market positioning, but he still liked intermediate and long Treasuries with yields above 5%. He also said higher yields and energy costs are already slowing parts of the economy, though he does not expect recession.
On the inflation debate, Michele argued that the Fed’s practical target is closer to the mid-2s than 2%, and that the market is overpricing the risk of much tighter policy. He said investment grade and high-yield credit still look attractive because he expects the economy to land in a middle ground, not a sharp downturn or a reacceleration.
Lindsey Piegza took a more orthodox Fed view, saying strong data and a solid labor market give policymakers room to keep tightening, even if inflation is partly driven by forces outside the Fed’s control. Henrietta Treyz focused on the geopolitical and political fallout from the Middle East conflict, warning that energy restrictions, especially on diesel, are becoming a major domestic political problem and could intensify pressure on Republicans heading into the midterms.
Key takeaways
- Bob Michele said yields above 5% make intermediate and long Treasuries attractive, and he expects to keep buying if markets stabilize.
- Michele argued the rise in yields and oil prices is slowing the economy and widening stress in credit, but not enough to imply recession.
- Michele said the Fed’s workable inflation target is in the mid-2s, not exactly 2%, and that core inflation could settle there.
- Lindsey Piegza said a strong employment picture gives the Fed room for at least one more rate increase, with a possible additional hike next year.
- Henrietta Treyz said diesel restrictions would deepen political fractures inside the Republican Party and raise pressure on the White House.
- Treyz argued the conflict around the Strait of Hormuz is a major energy and election issue because it affects insurers, farmers, and banks.
Notable quotes
“We like the intermediate and long end with yields over 5%. The price action last week unusual, suggesting a blow-off top in yields is forming”
“523's a much happier place for us in the bond market. We can go back in, buy with some yield”
“I think the inflation objective is mid-2s. I think what we learned from the pre-COVID era that a 2% target is too low”
“I do think the Fed is going to have to slow the economy in order to get inflation under control and part of the consequence of that is a slightly higher unemployment rate”
“What we're looking at is restrictions on different kinds of products. The White House is scrambling now to find out what they can do on anything else, anywhere down the line with diesel and gasoline”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios — Podcasts, radio, news. — This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferro, along with Lisa Abramowicz and Amry Houghton. Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on
Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. — We begin this hour with stocks retreating as yields and crude climb. Bob Michele of J.P. Morgan Asset Management staying bullish on bonds, writing, "We like the intermediate and long end with yields over 5%. The price action last week unusual, suggesting a blow-off top in yields is forming." Bob joins us now for more. Bob, good morning.
Happy to be here. — What's going wrong in your fixed income this morning?
Well, I think a couple things synced up last week. One is we got midway through the week and it was clear there wasn't going to be a peace accord in the Middle East during U.N. week.
Um so, suddenly you've got oil going higher. You've got everyone concerned about the second-round effects of that. Will that get passed through to finished goods and services?
And then you had some Fed speakers come in. Uh notably, uh New York Fed President uh Williams talking about uh more may needed to be done. And if you go back a week earlier, he was one we thought could be a dovish dissent.
And I think those couple of things caught the market off guard. Probably there were a couple stops along the way. So, we've had the back up.
Is that enough to change your mind?
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- global markets
- economic outlook
- investment management
- macroeconomics
- finance
Companies and tickers mentioned
- JPM
- SF
- JPMorgan Investment Management
- Stifel Nicolaus & Co.
- Veda Partners
- Bloomberg
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: September 28th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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