Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: September 2nd, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Kate Moore, Torsten Slok, Stephen Schork
Summary
Stocks may pause in September, but the first guest stayed constructive on equities into year-end and said the portfolio remains underweight bonds. The case was that strong data, a still-sustainable expansion, and a heavy calendar of Fed and earnings events support a temporary consolidation rather than a trend break. She argued that the long end of the Treasury market has lost some of its traditional ballast role because credibility on inflation has not yet been fully restored, and she said gold has become a useful portfolio diversifier alongside equities.
A second guest argued that higher long rates are being driven less by a uniquely U.S. fiscal story than by a mix of Fed expectations, inflation pressure, Middle East risk, and the effects of tariffs. He said the U.S. term premium has moved sideways and is still below Japan and Germany, which he used to push back on the idea that the market is pricing an exceptional American fiscal doom loop. He also said rates can still rise without breaking the AI investment cycle because expected returns in that sector remain well above borrowing costs.
The final guest said Venezuelan oil is not a quick fix for either the global market or the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. He warned that U.S. distillate inventories are at dangerously low seasonal levels, with refinery and heating-fuel tightness becoming a bigger issue as demand picks up into fall.
Key takeaways
- The first guest said she remains bullish stocks into year-end even as she expects September consolidation.
- She said long Treasuries are no longer a reliable haven and that gold has been added as a portfolio diversifier.
- The second guest said the U.S. term premium has been flat for 12 months and is lower than Japan’s and Germany’s.
- He argued that Middle East tensions, inflation pressure and strong growth matter more for long rates than fiscal fears alone.
- Stephen Schork said Venezuelan barrels cannot quickly or realistically refill the SPR, and U.S. distillate inventories are already at seasonal lows.
Notable quotes
“We hold an underweight duration since we believe the likely path for interest rates across advanced economy central banks runs higher”
“I think we have to expect a bit of consolidation in September. That is the normal course of business at this time of year”
“I added gold to the portfolio, you know, last year, a pretty considerable portion for most of the risk profiles”
“I'm not confident they will”
“Washington is treating Venezuela's enormous reserves as though they are immediately available barrels. They are not”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Pharaoh along with Lisa Abramitz and Amarie Hordern.
Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg television weekday mornings from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. Eastern.
Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. We begin this hour with stocks looking to snap a three-day losing streak.
K Mo City Wealth writing, "We hold an underweight duration since we believe the likely path for interest rates across advanced economy central banks runs higher. We prefer to take risk in equities. Kate joins us now for more.
Kate, good morning.
Good morning. — How was the hiking? What did I miss? — Um, the hiking is always amazing. — Good time had by all. Yeah, it was a good time had by all, including the bears, which I know Jonathan you care about.
I'm I'm very very scared of the bears and won't be attending anytime soon for those hikes. — Yeah, a grizzly actually walked toward us on our hike. — You should You should be more concerned about the moose than the bears, but that's another story.
It's like the hippo, right? The hippo. People seem to think hippos are like, you know, — Dumb, blind, and mean, — Right? We're conditioned as children to think that hippos are cute, and they're not cute. — And the little ones are sort of cute.
And loose aren't either. — Yeah. And neither are bears cuz they're adorable. — My producer always tells me I'm not a bear. We're live.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- global markets
- economic outlook
- investment strategy
- wealth management
- market surveillance
Companies and tickers mentioned
- C
- APO
- Citigroup
- Apollo Management
- Schork Group
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: September 2nd, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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Bloomberg Surveillance, this episode and its artwork belong to Bloomberg. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
