Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: September 3rd, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Keith Lerner, Jayati Bharadwaj, Adam Hodge
Summary
Stocks and bonds were described as having found their footing, but the conversation quickly turned to whether the market’s next move is being driven less by earnings and more by rates. The host and an analyst from Truist argued that the S&P 500 has been flat since June, the 10-year yield around 4.80% is a key technical line, and September could be choppy even if the longer-term trend in equities remains up. The analyst said the market has already reset valuations, with the S&P around 19 times earnings and tech multiples down sharply from 33 last October to about 21, while earnings estimates into next year are still rising.
Key takeaways
- The Truist analyst said the market is already shifting from earnings to a two-sided macro debate centered on interest rates.
- He argued a single Fed hike would likely be manageable, but a series of hikes would be more damaging to the bull case.
- The analyst said S&P 500 correlation is at its lowest level in about 30 years, underscoring a highly dispersed, stock-picker’s market.
- The TD Securities analyst said the yen move likely reflects expectations for a more aggressive BOJ hiking path and a broader unwind of yen shorts.
- The Bully Pulpit International managing director said data-center backlash is as much about local agency and distrust as it is about messaging.
Notable quotes
“The market is moving from a powerful earning season to a more two-sided macro debate with interest rates taking center stage”
“I think it is already changing. I mean, the market, um, even really since June, the S&P, I don't think people realize it”
“The risk of BOJ hikes are rising as that is the only sustainable way to stem currency weakness”
“the industry has done a terrible job of explaining themselves. They've been tonedeaf to communities”
“a third of GDP right now is AI related construction, right? Like that's that is a fundamental underpinning of our growth right now”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Pharaoh along with Lisa Abramitz and Amarie Hordern.
Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg television weekday mornings from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. Eastern.
Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg Business app, we begin this hour with stocks and bonds finding their footing. Keith Leard of Truist writing, "The market is moving from a powerful earning season to a more two-sided macro debate with interest rates taking center stage.
Keith joins us now for more. Keith, welcome to the program. For the last 6 months or so, high yields have not been a problem for this equity market.
Keith, the question of the week is whether you believe that's about to change.
Yeah. Well, first, great to be with you. I think it is already changing.
I mean, the market, um, even really since June, the S&P, I don't think people realize it. We're up about 1% and I think, uh, you know, after this earning season, it's all about the macro. The, uh, this the tenure is kind of, you know, playing with all of us cuz it's staying around this 480 level, uh, which is an important technical level.
And if we started to move more abruptly above there, then I think that's a um you know that's a risk. I I would say it's a two-sided risk because everyone's really braced now for higher rates and concerned about that. And uh you know the Fed funds futures is now pricing in you know more than a 60% chance of a rate hike.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- fx strategy
- investment outlook
- market surveillance
- macroeconomic data
- global markets
Companies and tickers mentioned
- TFC
- TD
- Truist Advisory Services
- TD Securities
- Bully Pulpit International
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: September 3rd, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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Bloomberg Surveillance, this episode and its artwork belong to Bloomberg. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
