Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: September 9th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 20 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Mike Wilson, Bruce Van Saun, Mike Feroli
Summary
Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson argued that higher oil and rates are the main near-term risks to equities, but he still sees a bull market, with earnings growth and a broadening of market leadership outweighing the headline worries. He said the S&P 500 has already “corrected” through valuations rather than prices, and that the rotation from early-cycle winners to midcycle, higher-quality names remains intact. He also said energy should be held as a hedge, while investors should favor S&P 500 exposure, quality stocks, and underweight duration in fixed income.
Bruce Van Saun of Citizens Financial Group took a more optimistic view of the US economy, saying growth is firming, unemployment is steady in the low fours, inflation is gradually easing, and capital markets are open. He said consumers are still resilient despite higher gasoline prices, and that a strong labor market and healthy stock and housing wealth are supporting spending. He also suggested a rate hike would not derail a good economy.
JPMorgan’s Mike Feroli focused on the inflation data that could decide whether the Fed hikes in September. He said a 0.20% core CPI reading would keep the Fed on hold, while a 0.29% print could change the call to a hike, with PPI and the PCE translation also crucial. He said wage inflation remains moderate, but warned that tariff and energy pass-through could still feed inflation expectations and justify an insurance hike.
Key takeaways
- Mike Wilson says the market’s main near-term risk is higher oil and rates, but he still sees a broad bull market supported by stronger-than-expected earnings.
- Wilson favors quality stocks, S&P 500 exposure, and energy as a hedge, while warning that long bonds remain unattractive.
- Bruce Van Saun says the US economy is resilient, with GDP improving, unemployment in the low fours, and consumers still spending despite higher gasoline prices.
- Van Saun argues that one or two rate hikes would not choke off a strong economy and would mostly act as a signaling mechanism.
- Mike Feroli says Thursday’s PPI and Friday’s CPI are pivotal, and a core CPI near 0.20% would likely keep the Fed on hold.
- Feroli says wage growth has stayed moderate, but tariff and energy pass-through could still lift inflation expectations enough to justify a hike.
Notable quotes
“the US economy has remained remarkably resilient. Consumers continue to benefit from a generally healthy labor market”
“We forecast core CPI of 0.21% month overmonth which we think leaves the Fed on hold”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Pharaoh along with Lisa Abramitz and Amarie Hordern.
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Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley writing higher oil and rates remain the main risk to equities in the near term. Mike joins us now for more. Mike, good morning. — Morning. — It's good to see you. Look, we've dealt with this now for 7 months. We've dealt with it. Okay. Equities have been up and to the right. Does that change?
It's a wall of worry. You know, I mean, look, this is our call for the whole year, which is that earnings were going to be better than people expected. It was even better than we thought, quite frankly.
and we've been derating all year. So, it's it's not as if the market is ignoring all of these risks. It's just been digesting it in a way where it's not as obvious to the casual observer.
Hey, the S&P hasn't really corrected. Well, it has corrected in price in price earnings multiples and then and then the averages go up because of earnings. So, the broadening out story, I think we were the first ones to talk about that.
And that and to me, that's really the story. It's it's this transition now. We're going from an early cycle recovery from the recession of a year ago.
Okay, we had all the rotation now to the midcycle areas, the quality rotation.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- us equity strategy
- economic outlook
- financial markets
- investment outlook
- world markets
Companies and tickers mentioned
- MS
- CFG
- JPM
- Morgan Stanley
- Citizens Financial Group
- JPMorgan
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: September 9th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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