Episode summary
Markets, Earnings, and Oil | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 34 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Ed Yardeni, Lori Calvasina, Ellen Fraser, David Reich
Summary
Ed Yardeni argued that the economy is still in a “roaring 2020s” setup, with real GDP and stock prices at record highs and an earnings boom supported by strong revenues. He pushed back on the idea of “higher for longer,” calling the current regime “normal for longer” and tying fairer bond yields to nominal GDP growth. Yardeni also said bond vigilantes are not driving the market today in a decisive way, and that the main risk to his equity view would be a meaningful slowdown in nominal growth or a deterioration in geopolitics.
Lori Calvasina said RBC Capital Markets is still looking for a 5% to 10% S&P 500 drawdown as a normal Tier 1 pullback, but not a recessionary break. She expects some weakness in 2027 earnings if conflict-related costs and higher hedging and inventory expenses start to flow through more fully, and she said small caps remain challenged by the prospect of more rate hikes. She also noted that valuations in the Russell 2000 are cheaper but not washed out, while Nasdaq positioning remains crowded.
Ellen Fraser said oil markets remain highly sensitive to attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure, but that the real-world impact of Russian diesel or other supply releases may be limited against global demand. David Reich described Fambot as an AI chief of staff for families, aimed at turning the flood of emails, calendars, and school communications into a daily plan.
Key takeaways
- Ed Yardeni said the U.S. economy and stocks are still in a “roaring 2020s” regime, with nominal GDP and earnings supporting higher asset prices.
- Yardeni argued bond yields are back to normal rather than structurally “higher for longer,” and said nominal GDP near 6.3% is the key benchmark.
- Lori Calvasina said RBC expects a routine 5% to 10% S&P 500 pullback, not a recession, unless a new Tier 2 shock emerges.
- Calvasina said 2027 EPS estimates may need a 10% haircut if longer conflict costs and higher input prices start hitting company guidance.
- Ellen Fraser said refinery damage is not quick to fix and global diesel supply remains constrained even when headline volumes look large.
- David Reich said Fambot’s edge is a family-specific AI assistant that learns from emails, calendars, WhatsApp, and school apps.
Notable quotes
“I don't think it's higher for longer. I think it's normal for longer. We're we're back to normal rates”
“there's no doubt that we're in a uh earnings boom”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts, radio, news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 7 a.m.
Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. And so the basic act here, folks, is I control the show.
No, Mrs. King controls the show. She hears Yard Denny's going to be on and I get a text message.
Ed, with your dogs, do you get their teeth cleaned for $1,300 each time?
Uh, well, no. We We brush them ourselves. — You brush them yourself? — Yeah, we love our dogs. — Vet Bill and Kennel fee won't let me do that. Like, they're going to take my hand off. — 1,800 bucks is too much.
Do you medicate them? — No. No. No, — No, you okay. — No, they're they're they're they're good dogs and uh they they get groomed and uh the groomer brushes their teeth. I don't — I get a call from Donny's office when I get the dogs groomed. It's so damn expensive. It's outrageous what what we're paying for that
Affordability crisis and dog grooming — That sues us right into the equity markets. Thank you. Okay, the show can continue now, Mrs. Kenis. Happy to have that. Edard Denny with us with all of his iconic work linking economics to the markets as well. Do you reaffirm a roaring 20s scenario?
Seven years in, we're so far so good. Real GDP all-time record high. Stock market all-time record high. Uh so far so good. Just three more years. Uh I mean there are there are issues ahead. But it's amazing how well the economy has performed despite all the shocks that it's had to absorb since the beginning of the decade.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- s&p outlook
- bond vigilantes
- oil prices
- diesel prices
- ai integration
Companies and tickers mentioned
- RY
- Yardeni Research
- RBC Capital Markets
- Baringa
- Fambot
- Bloomberg
Watch the episode
Watch “Markets, Earnings, and Oil | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
More from Bloomberg Surveillance
-
Stocks Rise as Inflation Data Ease Fed-Hike Worry | Bloomberg Surveillance -
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 13th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance -
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 12th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance -
Jensen Huang Ousted by Nvidia Board as CEO | Bloomberg Surveillance -
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 11th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance -
AI Stocks Rebound as Fed Hike Bets Return | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance, this episode and its artwork belong to Bloomberg. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
