Episode summary
Nvidia Fails to Stoke AI Trade | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 28 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Ted Mortonson, Robert Schiffman, John Bilton, Drew Matus
Summary
Nvidia’s earnings did not produce the kind of broad AI rally many investors expected, but the discussion centered on why the company still sits at the center of the trade. The host and a guest argued that Nvidia’s “tax” on customers comes from its end-to-end system and the lock-in it creates, while the shift to agentic AI is driving far more compute demand, memory demand, and model complexity. The guest said software is being disrupted by real-time, consumption-based agent models that are much harder to forecast with traditional SaaS metrics.
A second guest from JPMorgan Asset Management said the market is not one trade but a collection of stocks, and that the recent selloff in tech is really a stock-by-stock repricing of disruption risk. Even so, he said the sector still looks attractive on valuation and that U.S. assets remain supported, though a weaker dollar and stronger stimulus abroad are encouraging more international exposure.
A third guest from MetLife pushed back on the idea of an AI jobs apocalypse. He argued that AI should be viewed as a productivity tool that helps people do more, not replace them, and said companies should not be pressured into changing too quickly. The show also covered jobless claims running below expectations, ongoing tariff uncertainty after the Supreme Court ruling, and newspaper stories on Americans leaving the U.S. in record numbers and women gaining influence in art collecting.
Key takeaways
- The guest from Baird said Nvidia’s system approach creates a price premium and lock-in, but also positions it to dominate AI infrastructure globally.
- The JPMorgan strategist said tech and communication services look cheap relative to the broader market after the selloff, despite the disruption fears.
- The MetLife strategist said AI is more likely to raise productivity than cause a jobs apocalypse, because it increases what workers can do rather than replacing them outright.
- The host noted initial jobless claims at 212,000, below the 216,000 consensus, as the labor market still has not cracked.
- The newspaper segment highlighted record U.S. outmigration, tariff refund lawsuits, and rising female participation in art collecting.
Notable quotes
“agents are absolutely exploding out there. And when you explode agents, you need a tremendous amount of compute”
“this is a market of stocks. It's not a single entity. It's not a stock market”
“we continue to like holding tech and com services um for a couple of reasons”
“this is not the AI jobs apocalypse. You know you we are thinking about this the wrong way”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 7 a.m.
Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. There is no other grind in engineering like Annapapolis in the the fire hose program there of nuclear power school or applied engineering and technology.
Ted Mortonson survived this. He's out at Beard right now and joins us on a video. Ted, what was it like your first day at our naval academy?
It was brutal. I mean, uh, I would say I I, you know, I I look back and I try to figure out how I got through four years of that going to, uh, going to class through Saturday. Uh, it was a, it was a real challenge and I wasn't the smartest, uh, tech in the group.
That's what Stravidita said. He did pretty good, uh, leading in the Navy. Where did you serve in the US Navy for this nation? — I flew for 13 years. um really kind of the surve surveillance anti-ubmarine what the P8s are doing right now in the uh um the Straits of Hormuz. So great flying um pretty much all over the world.
Yeah, we'd love to get you back on. We'd love to get you back on to talk about that at some time. I guess right now we'll be forced to do technology.
You look at Nvidia and a lot of the research notes today say look it's all concentrated in two, three, five vendors as well. How bad does Google, how bad does Microsoft, how bad does some company I don't know, how bad do they not want to use Nvidia?
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- nvidia earnings
- ai trade
- ai fears
- asset allocation
- fed path
Companies and tickers mentioned
- NVDA
- BIRD
- JPM
- MET
- NWSA
- NWS
- NYT
- Nvidia
- Robert W. Baird
- JPMorgan Asset Management
- MetLife
- News Corp
- The New York Times Company
Watch the episode
Watch “Nvidia Fails to Stoke AI Trade | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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