Episode summary
Nvidia Reports as SpaceX & OpenAI IPOs Gain Steam | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 27 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney · Guests: Frank Lee, Vishal Khanduja, Lakshman Achuthan, Ivan Feinseth
Summary
Nvidia’s latest results were described as solid, but not enough on their own to keep driving the stock higher. The guests argued that the real issue is narrative: investors want more evidence that Nvidia is winning share outside the hyperscalers, especially in enterprise and sovereign AI. One guest said the company’s reclassification of data-center revenue into hyperscaler and non-hyperscaler buckets was a useful first step, but the market still wants clearer proof of durable growth beyond the biggest cloud customers.
The fixed-income discussion centered on how the bond market has already tightened financial conditions without a formal Fed hike. One guest said mortgage borrowers are effectively paying as if the Fed had already raised rates, while recent yield moves reflect a mix of inflation shock, resilient growth, and technical selling. He argued that nominal yields, especially in the 7- to 10-year area, still look attractive, and that securitized credit and municipal bonds remain compelling in the current setup.
A third thread was inflation. Lakshman Achuthan said the underlying inflation cycle is moving higher in the U.S., Europe, Asia, and Japan, and warned that the Fed could again mistake cyclical moves for structural ones. Ivan Feinseth then shifted back to AI and megacap tech, saying Microsoft is still his favorite big-cap tech name and that SpaceX and OpenAI IPOs could broaden enthusiasm for the sector.
Key takeaways
- Frank Lee said Nvidia needs a new narrative focused on non-hyperscaler growth, because “beaten and raised” numbers no longer move the stock as much as before.
- Vishal Khanduja argued the bond market has already priced in tighter policy, with mortgage rates and long yields reflecting a de facto Fed hiking cycle.
- Lakshman Achuthan said the underlying inflation cycle is rising across major economies and warned the Fed risks repeating past cyclical policy mistakes.
- Ivan Feinseth said Microsoft remains his favorite big-cap tech name and expects strong investor interest in future SpaceX and OpenAI IPOs.
- Khanduja said nominal 7- to 10-year Treasuries, securitized credit, and high-tax-state munis still offer attractive value relative to risk.
Notable quotes
“what they need to show is you know, that the the non-hyperscalers continue to grow”
“So if you were a home or wanting to be a homeowner today, you're already paying mortgage rates as if the Fed had hiked twice yesterday”
“We're going to see a 4% print on CPI”
“I think big cap tech is Microsoft”
How the episode opens
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Okay, two-hour conversation frankly got Mandy coming in a moment. Frankly is with HSBC. Frank, what did the Nvidia earnings say to Microsoft?
What did they tell Apple? What did they tell Amazon? I I think the key messaging is that Nvidia needs to yeah, change up their narrative a bit, right?
I think, you know, what they did here this quarter was quite interesting is how they reclassified their data center revenues. They broke it down between the hyperscalers and the non-hyperscalers. And I think this is what investors ultimately want to see is, you know, the growth in the non-hyperscalers continue to show that they're they're gaining share there.
And and I think that's the next big narrative that really the that the stock needs to really see a bigger re-rating. I'm looking at Nvidia here. Again, I thought the results were just really solid.
The stock's pretty much unchanged on the market here on the day here pre-market trading. $223 pretty much unchanged. But the stock's had a obviously a good run up 20% year-to-date, 70% on trailing 12 months.
So, Frank, I mean, what's the next step for a a story like Nvidia here? Because I I look out there and I see competition building, whether it's AMD of the world or some other players, even Intel. What's what's the next step for this story here?
Yeah, so I think that's exactly the point is that the beaten raised numbers don't really do much anymore. You know, the you know, a strong AI GP roadmap doesn't do that much anymore.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- nvidia earnings
- tech ipo momentum
- bond market moves
- inflation cycle
- sp 500 outlook
Companies and tickers mentioned
- NVDA
- HSBC
- MS
- Nvidia
- SpaceX
- OpenAI
- HSBC
- Morgan Stanley Investment Management
- ECRI
- Tigress Financial
Watch the episode
Watch “Nvidia Reports as SpaceX & OpenAI IPOs Gain Steam | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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