Episode summary
Potential Market Rebound and Shipping Latest | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 30 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Anwita Bahuguna, Violeta Todorova, Ben McMillan, Oscar de Bok
Summary
The discussion centered on whether the recent tech selloff is a pause in a still-intact bull market or the start of a broader reset. The first guest said Northern Trust has already begun tweaking portfolios, moving bonds back to neutral as a hedge while still leaning into equities, AI productivity, and a barbell of U.S. and emerging markets. The argument was that inflation is moderating only unevenly, geopolitics remain a key risk, and investors are increasingly searching for alternatives to the concentrated U.S. tech trade.
A second guest argued that the semiconductor weakness looks more like the kinds of 7- to 8-month pullbacks seen in 2022 and 2024 than a dot-com style collapse. She said a rebound is likely over the next couple of weeks during earnings season, but warned of more weakness over the next four months, with volatility rising as higher rates and oil prices test valuations and earnings.
A third guest focused on how AI demand is being financed and where the weak links are. He said investors are becoming more discriminating after CoreWeave, which he described as a warning sign for debt-funded AI infrastructure, while large platforms like Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google may have more room to defend their spending. The shipping discussion then shifted the lens to real-economy constraints: DHL said global freight remains complicated, with rerouting around conflict zones, higher insurance costs, and AI data centers taking a large share of air-freight capacity.
Key takeaways
- Northern Trust is neutralizing its bond underweight because the guest sees bonds as a useful hedge if the AI trade and growth story crack.
- The guest from Leverage Shares said semiconductors could fall further for about four months, but expects an initial rebound during earnings season.
- Ben McMillan said CoreWeave exposed how debt-financed AI buildouts may force investors to demand more compensation for risk.
- McMillan said the debasement trade is drawing interest, with his firm seeing demand for a gold-Bitcoin-silver-Ethereum strategy fund.
- Oscar de Bok said DHL is seeing about 10% higher U.S. container imports and 42% of air-freight capacity tied to AI data center buildout.
Notable quotes
“we have started tweaking our portfolios a little bit this month starting this month”
“I think we are likely to see an initial rebound especially for the next couple of weeks throughout reporting season”
“coreweave I think was kind of the canary in the coal mine last week”
“the stocks correlation to each other was so so low”
“42% of the total capacity in air freight at the moment is related to AI data center buildup”
How the episode opens
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Hey, Chess Meton sitting in for TK this morning. I'm Paul Sunni live here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio streaming live on YouTube as well. Jess, all right, as my back in my cellite analyst days when a salesman was booking your Chicago visit, which you had to do like once or twice a year, go see accounts in Chicago. They would start with Northern Trust.
This was a big deal. — That was the deal. And then once you got the Northern Trust meeting lockdown, then you could build all around that for the rest of the day. — So then the stress is overactly.
Exly. Exactly. Our next guest, Anvidi Bahuguna, is a global co-CIO of Northern Trust uh asset management.
joins us here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio on video. What do you what's the number one issue that you and your team are talking about today? Cuz for the longest time, it's been AI and it's generally been a really good thing for the marketplace.
Now, now it seems like people are kind of asking some different questions. How do you position that AI story within your investment framework?
Thank you, Paul, for having me. Um I think the question is excellent because we have started tweaking our portfolios a little bit this month starting this month. Um on the growth side we have tremendous growth in the US. We do see inflation moderating in fits and starts. What's worrying us a bit is the fact that we still don't have a handle on the geopolitic situation
Which means maybe the inflation story remains front and center for a while and also the AI story is beginning to have a few cracks as you saw last week with Cororee.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- market rebound
- asset allocation
- tech selloff
- rates and ai demand
- global shipping and geopolitics
Companies and tickers mentioned
- NTRS
- Northern Trust
- Leverage Shares
- IDX Advisors
- DHL Global Forwarding
Watch the episode
Watch “Potential Market Rebound and Shipping Latest | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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