Episode summary
Reacting to the April US Jobs Report | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Claudia Sahm, John Stoltzfus, Kristina Campman, Kevin Gordon, Atsi Sheth
Summary
April payrolls came in stronger than expected, with the economy adding 115,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate held at 4.3% and wage growth ran a little light. Claudia Sahm argued the report fit a broader pattern of labor-market stability: labor supply is slowing, the break-even pace for keeping unemployment steady is lower, and the fact that unemployment held flat made the report a good sign of resilience even if underemployment ticked up.\n\nJohn Stoltzfus said the market’s next leg higher would need to be driven by earnings rather than revenue alone, and he pointed to broad double-digit earnings growth across many sectors as support for the bull case. He also argued that innovation, especially AI, is becoming more realistic: profits may take time, but usage is rising among consumers and businesses.\n\nKristina Campman said markets barely reacted because the dominant themes remain AI investment, geopolitics, and a still-resilient labor market. She was cautious on credit, saying her portfolios prefer less exposure there, while noting demand remains strong because of yield. Kevin Gordon framed the market as increasingly K-shaped, with tech and communication services far outperforming the broader consumer space, and he said the earnings season has shown large-cap stocks have largely shrugged off broader economic and policy noise. Atsi Sheth called credit resilience “fragile resilience,” warned about pockets of private credit, and said higher energy costs are pressuring airlines, building materials and chemicals while helping energy and defense.
Key takeaways
- The jobs report was stronger than expected, but Claudia Sahm said the bigger message was labor-market stability, not overheating.
- John Stoltzfus said the market’s advance will need earnings growth, and he sees broad double-digit earnings growth helping the bull case.
- Kristina Campman said credit remains the least attractive risk in her portfolios even though yield keeps demand firm.
- Kevin Gordon said the market is K-shaped, with tech and communication services outperforming a broader consumer segment that has lagged.
- Atsi Sheth said credit resilience is now fragile, and she flagged private credit, airlines, building materials and chemicals as areas to watch.
Notable quotes
“This definitely fits, I think, with this broader theme that we've seen since early this year is a lot more stability in the labor market”
“we still say credit is the lever that we want. the least exposure in”
“what we are saying is resilience, resilience, resilience. Last year the word was remarkable resilience”
How the episode opens
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Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. Claudia S joins us right now to begin our jobs day coverage.
What an interesting report here. Shout out to Stephanie Roth, the Wolf Research who was edging up above uh consensus on that as we clearly saw that. We're just getting in some of the secondary statistics that Alexis was unable to see on the Bloomberg terminal 3 month average change 48,000.
Uh the survey was the previous month was marked down as well. And over on the wage side, you get to Claudia S here. Uh earnings month over month a little light and a year over year a little light as well.
Dr. Sam, talk to us about the effect of our new lack of population growth on this jobs report and the reports to come into 2026.
Right. Well, you know, we we've talked a lot about how, you know, labor supply slowing down, the break even, like what do you have to have for jobs to keep the unemployment rate constant is much much lower, maybe even close to zero. And then we get numbers like this, right?
I mean, this was a big payroll number and last month was too. And essentially, you know, unemployment rate went sideways. So, I think it is important like it's hard to stitch all the pieces together.
Like we talk a lot about like the underlying fundamentals, what's happening with supply, but any, you know, monthto month, there's going to be a lot of details and so we can still get these big upside surprises.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- april us jobs report
- k-shaped market
- credit outlook
- us gdp growth
- market open commentary
Companies and tickers mentioned
- IVZ
- SCHW
- MCO
- New Century Advisors
- Oppenheimer
- Invesco
- Charles Schwab
- Moody's
Watch the episode
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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