Episode summary
Reasonable to be Optimistic About Markets in 2026, Says Rick Gardner
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 5 min · Guests: Rick Gardner, Adam Turnquist, Steve Sosnick, Tom Essaye, Craig Johnson
Summary
The guest said it is reasonable to be optimistic about 2026 because 2025 ended with a resilient consumer, relatively strong earnings, and less year-start turmoil than the prior year. He expects policy uncertainty to fade, which could allow money to broaden beyond the narrow leadership that dominated the market.
He still sees artificial intelligence and the related infrastructure buildout as a major catalyst, even though the trade looks expensive. At the same time, he argued investors should not stay overly concentrated in tech and should diversify across sectors. He pointed to real estate as unloved and potentially attractive, and said banks could benefit if the yield curve continues to normalize.
He was more cautious on renewable energy, saying policy shifts could make wind and solar projects less compelling despite strong energy demand overall. He also sees opportunity in small- and mid-cap stocks if rates keep falling and merger activity improves. Outside the U.S., he said international markets belong in diversified portfolios and may offer opportunities in 2026.
Key takeaways
- The guest thinks 2026 can be a broadly positive year because 2025 left consumers and corporate profits in good shape.
- He said AI can remain a major market leader, supported by innovation and infrastructure spending, even if valuations look rich.
- He urged diversification beyond tech, highlighting real estate and banks as areas that could benefit.
- He said renewable energy deserves caution because policy shifts may pressure wind and solar projects.
- He sees potential in small- and mid-cap stocks if rates fall further and M&A activity picks up.
- He said international exposure still belongs in portfolios and could offer new opportunities in 2026.
Notable quotes
“I do think as we head into 2026, there could be a broadening of where money is going”
“I think it's it's reasonable to maybe be a little optimistic as we head into 2026”
“that is what makes everybody a little bit nervous when you see that it's kind of priced for perfection right now”
“I think it's critical to be allocated across multiple sectors”
“I think you need to have exposure to international markets in your portfolio”
How the episode opens
Well, I think as we head into 2026, there are a lot of positives that we can take into the year. As you compare it to 2025, There was a lot of uncertainty coming into the year. And administration change made things very tumultuous at the beginning.
But what we saw was a very resilient consumer and relatively strong earnings throughout most of the year. That really set us up pretty well for this coming year. So to your point that you made earlier, I do think as we head into 2026, there could be a broadening of where money is going.
And I think it's it's reasonable to maybe be a little optimistic as we head into 2026. All right, Rick. So if there's going to be this broadening next year where I think we're all on board with that, but is tech and particularly tech around A.I.
still going to be the leader? You know, I think it very well could obviously it has been the leader and that is what makes everybody a little bit nervous when you see that it's kind of priced for perfection right now. But the innovation that exists within the A.I.
space and then you couple that with the infrastructure spending that surrounds it, and that is so critical to the computational power that air requires. I do think it will continue to be a really big catalyst. And those names could be very, very good things to be invested in as we get into 2026 and beyond there.
Hey, Rick, what's your. As we go into 2026, what's your allocations? Stocks, bonds, maybe even alternatives as well.
How do you think about that? Yeah, diversification is going to be really important. Again, as we talk about broadening and you look at what's happened in our markets over the last couple of years, it's been a very narrow trade.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- market outlook 2026
- ai rally
- fed rate cuts
- santa claus rally
- precious metals
Companies and tickers mentioned
- NVDA
- FCX
- LPLA
- IBKR
- PIPR
- RGA Investments
- Nvidia
- Groq
- Freeport-McMoRan
- LPL Financial
- Interactive Brokers
- Bespoke Investment Group
- The Sevens Report
- Piper Sandler
Watch the episode
Watch “Reasonable to be Optimistic About Markets in 2026, Says Rick Gardner” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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