Episode summary
S&P 500 Is Back in the Green for 2026 on Trump Davos Remarks
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 7 min · Guests: Julian Emanuel, Brian Jacobsen
Summary
A guest from Evercore ISI argued that 2026 still favors equities, but with more volatility than investors saw early in the year. He said the market has been driven by the secular growth and productivity bump from AI, and that skepticism around debt financing, AI and big hyperscalers has created a contrarian setup rather than breaking the bull market. He expects the current U.S. expansion to keep supporting revenues and earnings, citing company surveys at their highest level since early 2024 and a raised 2026 GDP forecast of 2.5%.
He said the first weeks of the year were too complacent and that this year should feature multiple bouts of higher volatility, not a quick rebound. The guest told listeners to stay patient, keep cash available, and be ready to buy declines, while still seeing the S&P 500 reach 7750 by year end.
On fixed income, he said bond investors should not expect a simple repeat of 2025. He pointed to rising Japanese yields, global competition for capital, fiscal expansion, and a higher-yield regime that he thinks is likely to keep pressure on U.S. rates.
Key takeaways
- The guest thinks 2026 is still an equity bull market, but one with multiple volatility spikes and less complacency.
- Evercore ISI raised its 2026 U.S. GDP forecast to 2.5%, and the guest says surveys are still pointing to healthy revenue growth.
- He expects the S&P 500 to reach 7750 by year end, but only after investors endure pullbacks and should keep cash ready.
- The guest says rising Japanese yields and global competition for capital will put upward pressure on U.S. yields.
- He argues the 40-year secular bond bull market ended in 2020, leaving investors in a higher-yield regime.
Notable quotes
“We think it's going to take a little bit more patience this time”
“the key here is going to be patience and sticking to your knitting and having the cash to deploy”
“we think we might see multiple times on the way to 7750 by year end”
“the 40 year secular bond bull market ended in 2020 and we in a new higher yield regime”
“the idea that Japanese yields are exploding and that increases the global competition for capital”
How the episode opens
If you look at the general trajectory of revenue growth versus, you know, sort of right after the pandemic, but pre-pandemic, it's much higher. And that is reflective of Atlanta Fed GDP clocking in the neighborhood of 5% right now, doing that like you're like your 2026 outlook note here. What could surprise in 2026?
What are some of the things you think people should be? On the outlook for in terms of surprises? Well, the the surprise was number seven on the list.
The potential for the US taking control of. Okay. We in retrospect we put that no doubt Sunday morning we'd probably bump that up a couple of places.
I would say what's interesting now about the setup is that you had all this angst around debt financing, around the idea that at the end of of last year, credit default swap markets getting stressed, certain hyperscalers share prices getting stressed to the point where there's enough skepticism around the AI story and technology in general that in our mind it's almost sets up as a contrarian play and we're very excited by that. So I mean, we kind of came into Davos thinking that I might be the discussion point for the week that got thrown out with, you know, and now it's all about Greenland and tariffs right back. It's almost like we were April of last year here.
How much of a risk is that to the market or can this market, just as it's done in the past, kind of look through it maybe? Well. So so again, this is one of the you look at the last three years, a lot has been thrown at a market that is being driven by the secular growth and productivity bump potential of of a I.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- s&p 500 outlook for 2026
- trump geopolitics greenland
- treasuries and bond yields
- dollar weakness
- equity volatility decline
Companies and tickers mentioned
- EVR
- Evercore ISI
- Annex Wealth Management
Watch the episode
Watch “S&P 500 Is Back in the Green for 2026 on Trump Davos Remarks” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
More from Bloomberg Surveillance
-
Stocks Rise as Inflation Data Ease Fed-Hike Worry | Bloomberg Surveillance -
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 13th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance -
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 12th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance -
Jensen Huang Ousted by Nvidia Board as CEO | Bloomberg Surveillance -
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 11th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance -
AI Stocks Rebound as Fed Hike Bets Return | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance, this episode and its artwork belong to Bloomberg. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
