Episode summary
September Jobs Report | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 50 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Claudia Sahm, Rebecca Patterson, Kristina Campmany, Nicole Bachaud, Frances Donald, Huw van Steenis
Summary
The episode centered on the September jobs report, which came in much weaker than expected: 29,000 payrolls versus 90,000 expected, unemployment rising to 4.2%, and average hourly earnings running softer than forecast. The economist and the panel repeatedly described the labor market as a low-hire, low-fire environment, with low jobless claims and low layoffs but also weak hiring and little dynamism for job seekers. They argued the report did not meaningfully change the Fed’s outlook because policymakers are still more focused on sticky inflation than on one month of softer labor data.
A major theme was that labor weakness is partly a product of slower labor-force growth, reduced immigration, and an economy being reshaped by AI spending. The discussion suggested that AI-related capital expenditures are boosting growth without generating many jobs, while also pulling resources, labor, and financing into data centers and related projects.
The panel also tied the move in Treasury yields to a broader global reset in rates. Higher-for-longer yields were described as the new normal, with pressure from supply, fiscal deficits, and a glut of bond issuance, especially from hyperscalers. European markets, UK rates, and French fiscal strains were discussed as part of the same global bond-market repricing.
Key takeaways
- The jobs report was much softer than expected, with 29,000 payrolls and 4.2% unemployment, but the economist said the labor market still looks stable rather than collapsing.
- The economist said the Fed is likely to stay focused on inflation because this report does not change the broader policy picture.
- The labor economist argued slower hiring and lower turnover are pressuring wages and adding to affordability problems for workers.
- The panel said AI capex is boosting GDP and borrowing needs, but it is not translating into a matching number of jobs.
- The investor view was that Treasury yields are in a structurally higher range, with one guest saying they would not add to Treasuries here.
- The European discussion emphasized that hyperscaler issuance is materially changing credit markets and contributing to higher global rates.
Notable quotes
“we are the labor market is much more stable like job creation has stabilized relative to last year when it was really sliding but we are not in an uptrend”
“This just shows no we are the labor market is much more stable like job creation has stabilized relative to last year when it was really sliding”
“I would not be adding to treasuries here. Okay. Now, if you're a very long-term investor and you're going to buy it and hold it till maturity, fine”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 7 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. Always we start strong with Claudia Sam to say she's chief economist at New Century Adviserss barely describes the accolade. She is at the University of Minnesota in Duth.
Whoa. Okay.
Where men are men and play hockey 12 months of the year uh giving a speech and being honored of course as she should be by all of their economics. Claudia Son, the two Americas of Duth and say New York City are a median house price of 250,000 versus something like 710,000 in New York City. The job economies that we're going to see in 4 minutes.
How does the Fed treat Duth's job economy versus New York City's job economy?
Right. Well, the Fed has a difficult position in that they have one tool, the federal funds rate, the interest rate, right? So, they really have to look at the US labor market as a whole.
They can't look at Duth versus New York City differently. And and honestly, a lot of the things that we see in local labor markets that distinguish them, they aren't the business cycle. They aren't what the Fed really tries to stabilize.
They're much longer trends. There's big shifts in demographics, shifts in industry, some of which happened decades ago. Like the closing of US steel, which is far in the in the rearview mirror, still has real implications in the duth local economy.
Claudia, is this US labor market, can it still be characterized as a low hire, lowfire environment? — Absolutely.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- september jobs report
- us labor and hiring
- sector hiring trends
- market open outlook
- euro economic outlook
Companies and tickers mentioned
- IVZ
- ZIP
- RY
- APO
- New Century Advisors
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Bridgewater
- Invesco
- ZipRecruiter
- Royal Bank of Canada
- Apollo
Watch the episode
Watch “September Jobs Report | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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