Episode summary
Trump Urges End to Fighting After Iran, Israel Trade Missiles | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Nathan Sheets, Ethan Bronner, Collin Martin, Jennifer Lawless
Summary
The conversation centered on how higher oil prices, resilient growth, and the Middle East conflict are reshaping the outlook for rates and inflation. A guest economist argued that central banks are being pushed toward less accommodation and more restriction because the global economy is still resilient while inflation is proving stickier, with oil capable of feeding through into core inflation if prices stay elevated for 6 to 12 months. He said the U.S. and Europe are both likely facing higher-for-longer rate pressure, though he was more skeptical that the ECB should move as aggressively as markets expect.
The Israel segment focused on whether the weekend’s missile exchange marked a new phase of the war. A guest bureau chief said the situation was still unclear, but that Israel wants Lebanon excluded from any U.S.-Iran closure and wants Hezbollah degraded enough that Israelis in the north can live safely again. He said the politics are also inseparable from the conflict, with an Israeli election due in about 3 months and a broad debate over Netanyahu’s hold on power.
Later, a fixed-income strategist argued that bond investors should not wait for a dramatic rally in yields. He said financial conditions do not look especially tight, credit still offers value, and two-year Treasuries already pay enough to make cash and money funds look less attractive unless the Fed hikes twice more.
Key takeaways
- The guest economist said central banks are being pushed toward tighter policy because the global economy remains resilient and inflation is still firm.
- He warned that if oil stays high for 6 to 12 months, second-round effects could lift core inflation and inflation expectations.
- The guest bureau chief said Israel wants Lebanon kept separate from any Iran deal and sees Hezbollah as embedded across Lebanon, not just near the border.
- He said the Israeli election in about 3 months matters because many voters want Netanyahu out and want a more centrist government.
- The fixed-income strategist said investors can still find value in bonds and credit, and should not wait too long for higher yields.
- He said the two-year Treasury already offers enough income that cash and money-market investors need the Fed to hike twice more just to catch up.
Notable quotes
“Now is not the time to be going long duration”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 7 a.m.
Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. Nathan Sheets with us uh right now.
We're thrilled that he could uh join us here uh this morning. Nathan, is it a global lift of interest rates? Is it a new regime globally to just a higher inflation expectation?
Uh I certainly think we're in a place where uh central banks are feeling pressured to uh be less accommodative and more restrictive than what we expected as the year began and uh I think the key driver there is that on the one hand uh this global economy uh continues to be quite resilient and yeah we marked down our global forecast by a few ten
But uh inflation uh is going to be higher and central banks are responding to that reality
With with as global chief economist at Croup. The ambiguity here is higher rates slower, higher rates resilient, higher rates the the global economy keeps chugging on. Where is Croup on that call?
Well, uh I think at the moment, uh our forecast is a little bit softer, but uh my my feeling, my instinct here is uh we're continuing to see a lot of resilience and as you say, the global economy is chugging on. Now, part of that reality is, yeah, it's a flexible, adaptable economy, and we're responding to this oil shock a bit better than I would have expected, but at the same time, this structural uh secular support from uh the unveiling of uh of AI and the massive investment that's happening is another uh key driver of that resilience that we're seeing.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- fed inflation pressures
- income still matters for bonds
- iran israel conflict headlines
- domestic political pushback to middle east conflict
- fixed income strategy
Companies and tickers mentioned
- C
- SCHW
- Citi
- Charles Schwab
Watch the episode
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
More from Bloomberg Surveillance
-
Stocks Rise as Inflation Data Ease Fed-Hike Worry | Bloomberg Surveillance -
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 13th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance -
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 12th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance -
Jensen Huang Ousted by Nvidia Board as CEO | Bloomberg Surveillance -
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 11th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance -
AI Stocks Rebound as Fed Hike Bets Return | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance, this episode and its artwork belong to Bloomberg. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
