Episode summary
Ukraine's Top General Deters Talk of Concessions in Peace Proposals
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 7 min · Guests: Marc Champion
Summary
Marc Champion argues that Ukraine’s top general is trying to correct a damaging narrative: yes, the battlefield situation is hard, but it is not the same as losing the war. He says Ukraine is losing territory slowly, at roughly 1.5 to 4 kilometers a month, while Russia has still failed to make the kind of decisive breakthroughs that would justify forcing Kyiv into a sweeping ceasefire on Russian terms.
Key takeaways
- Marc Champion says Russia is advancing too slowly, at around 1.5 to 4 kilometers a month, to justify claims that Ukraine is collapsing.
- He argues the initial 28-point peace plan amounted to the Russian demands, including territorial concessions and limits on Ukraine’s armed forces.
- Champion says Ukraine’s strategy is to raise the cost of the war for Russia, whose casualties are high and whose economy is showing strain.
- He warns that cutting off U.S. weapons sales via Europeans or intelligence sharing would be catastrophic for Ukraine.
- He says most Ukrainians want peace, but roughly 70% still reject giving up the territory being demanded.
Notable quotes
“We don't have the manpower that Russia has. We don't have the, you know, centralized missile production, etc., that that Russia has and that tells on the battlefield”
“they're losing territory at a rate, as he put it, of somewhere between one and a half and about four kilometers per month to the Russians”
“So why should the Ukrainians give them away? They're just not losing that badly”
“the Ukrainian strategy is to just gradually increase the cost on Russia, the cost of continuing the war”
“if he is to if he does say to the Ukrainians, you simply have to accept the Russian terms”
How the episode opens
This is General Koski. He is the chief of all the armed forces in Ukraine. Doesn't often talk at any great length.
Every once in a while he weighs in. But he has given a couple of interviews in the last week, which were really quite detailed and it was clear what he wanted to say. And that is basically, yes, it is really tough.
We we you know, we have obvious weaknesses. We don't have the manpower that Russia has. We don't have the, you know, centralized missile production, etc., that that Russia has and that tells on the battlefield.
But then, you know, when you go into detail, the question is, what does it mean when we say that they're losing the war? Well, they're losing territory at a rate, as he put it, of somewhere between one and a half and about four kilometers per month to the Russians. You know, it's a big country the size of France.
So what we're talking about, you know, is this year about 0.7% or so of Ukrainian territory. So, yes, they're losing territory. They are not taking back territory.
But now they're being asked to accept a really difficult peace deal, one that, you know, in its initial draft. It's been changed since we don't know the details of that, but in its initial draft, one that did two things. One was that it gave away territory that the Russians have been failing, trying and failing to take for actually a decade.
And that, you know, and at the same time, they're being asked to, you know, accept that there should be different, you know, constraints on their own armed forces and so on. And no firm security guarantees to ensure that Russia doesn't just pocket the gains and then invade again at a later date as it's done before.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- ukraine peace talks
- donbas referendums
- us peace plan
- security guarantees
- russia offensive
Watch the episode
Watch “Ukraine's Top General Deters Talk of Concessions in Peace Proposals” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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