Episode summary
US Firms Add Just 29,000 Jobs, Unemployment Rate Ticks Up: Instant Reaction | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 20 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Claudia Sahm, Rebecca Patterson, Kristina Campmany
Summary
The jobs report came in much weaker than expected, with nonfarm payrolls up just 29,000 versus 90,000 expected, the prior month revised down, unemployment rising to 4.2%, and average hourly earnings missing as well. The hosts and guests treated the print as evidence that the labor market is still soft, but not collapsing: job creation is running at a very low level, labor-force growth is slowing, and the current picture looks more like stagnation than overheating. That helped bonds rally and pushed yields lower, while futures and equities held up after the release.
The discussion argued that the report probably does not force a major change in Fed policy. One guest said the central bank is still focused on inflation, especially supply-driven inflation, and is likely to keep any rate moves modest. Another guest argued that higher yields are becoming a structural feature of the market, not a temporary spike, and said investors should not assume the zero-rate era will return. The conversation also tied labor weakness to immigration changes, data-center construction, AI-related capex, and a broader shortage of labor dynamism.
Key takeaways
- The payrolls miss was sharp enough to weaken the bond market’s growth expectations, but guests said it does not by itself change the Fed’s stance.
- A guest said the labor market is in a low-job-creation, low-quit-rate equilibrium rather than an acceleration phase.
- One guest said slower labor-force growth is being amplified by immigration changes, though the data are still hard to measure cleanly.
- Another guest argued that higher Treasury yields are a structural reset and investors should expect a higher-for-longer bond regime.
- AI capex and data-center buildout were described as boosting growth while also pulling labor and capital toward energy- and construction-intensive uses.
Notable quotes
“We were expecting 90,000 jobs. were only getting 29,000. The prior month also revised downward from 162 to 133,000”
“this just shows no we are the labor market is much more stable like job creation has stabilized relative to last year”
“I don't think this gives the Fed a lot of information. I don't think it'll really change what their their approach to monetary policy right now”
“I think we are in a higher for longer regime. I think government bond yields again across a number of markets are resetting higher structurally”
“I would not be adding to treasuries here. Okay”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. This is a breaking news update from Bloomberg. Instant reaction and analysis from our 3,000 journalists and analysts around the world.
Let's get right to it. Uh big uh changes here. Change in non-farm payrolls.
We were expecting 90,000 jobs. were only getting 29,000. The prior month also revised downward from 162 to 133,000.
The unemployment rate rising to 4.2%. The expectation was 4.1%. Average hourly earnings on a month overmonth basis uh coming in much less than expected.
Uh just a tenth of a percent. The expectation was for 3/10en of a percent. You mentioned that uh 2-year yield down 8 basis points right now, 4.7%.
We check the markets for you all day long right here on Bloomberg Radio. I'm John Tucker. That's your uh unemployment report, the jobs report for this Friday.
Paul and Tom,
John Tucker, thanks so much. 4.2% on the unemployment rate. There's a lot of noise in there. I got a C minus on this. Dr. Sam marked me down years ago. Understandable — On this. 4.2% 2% here and you know everything folks as I said it was a real stasis survey
And the answer is the numbers are not 29,000 and the two month payroll revision is60,000 I'm going to nail this that's a negative 29,000 — Okay — Negative over you know a summation here as well the hourly earnings come in light light light 0.3
And they came in substantially below that 0.1 — Average hourly earnings you know annualized down a tick 3.1 down to 30 equities lift up 61 on futures up 30 double up 60 NASDAQ up a full stick 1% the VIX as Paul mentioned at 16 comes in at 15 Paul to let Dr.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- jobs report
- unemployment rate
- wage growth
- labor market slowdown
- employer caution
Companies and tickers mentioned
- IVZ
- New Century Advisors
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Invesco
Watch the episode
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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