Episode summary
US & Iran Wrangle Over Deal Terms to End War | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 29 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Wei Li, Leslie Vinjamuri, Dan Ives, Mabrouk Chetouane
Summary
The episode centered on how geopolitical stress is colliding with an already resilient equity market. The guest from BlackRock said valuations still look more attractive than a year ago because earnings have held up, even as the Strait of Hormuz disruption has pushed inflation and rates higher. She argued that the AI trade is more than offsetting Middle East risk, with large-cap tech delivering results far ahead of expectations and the market still too concentrated to call it a broad-based recovery. She also said it is too early to tell who the ultimate winners of AI will be, since they may not even be public companies yet.
The conversation then shifted to Iran and the stalled diplomacy around the war. The guest from the Chicago Council on Global Affairs said Iran has used its leverage effectively and now looks stronger than the United States in negotiations. She argued the best outcome may be a ceasefire and a delay on the nuclear issue, with Europe and the UK trying to build a plan to keep the Strait open. She also said allied public opinion toward the US has worsened sharply, while elites abroad are seeking ways to reduce dependence on Washington.
Dan Ives made the most aggressive tech call of the hour, saying Apple is poised to become a major AI monetization winner without the hyperscaler capex burden. He said the AI cycle is still early, expects it to broaden beyond megacap tech, and forecasted a much larger NASDAQ by year-end. A guest in Paris added that Europe remains underinvested in technology and AI and is exposed to the energy shock.
Key takeaways
- The guest from BlackRock said strong earnings are keeping valuations more attractive even as Middle East disruption lifts inflation and rates.
- The guest from BlackRock said the AI trade is offsetting geopolitical risk and that large-cap tech earnings are tracking far above expectations.
- The guest from the Chicago Council on Global Affairs said Iran has used its leverage effectively and now appears stronger than the US in talks.
- The guest from the Chicago Council on Global Affairs said Europe and the UK are trying to build a plan to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.
- Dan Ives said Apple can monetize AI through its installed base without matching the heavy capex of hyperscalers.
- A Paris-based guest said Europe is behind the US and Asia in AI investment and is already feeling the energy shock.
Notable quotes
“the summit points to a push to preserve near-term stability”
“the straight of hummus is still closed in terms of the uh acrude damage we're talking about 0.5 to global uh uh GDP this year”
“my view it's a trillion dollars of incremental value when it's all said and done”
“there is no comparison between Europe and and the US”
How the episode opens
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Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. So honored to have way lee with us here on an historic week always uh in diplomacy.
She is at Black Rockck and a wonderful thinker, their chief investment strategist. Wley, this is not Nixon to China. This is not Henry Kissinger secretly hanging out at the Peace Hotel in Shanghai to get things started.
If this is not Nixon to China, what is this visit? Well, uh, the summit points to a push to preserve near-term stability. There are incentives on both sides to, uh, manage tension given the deep supply disruption in uh, the Middle East and also the interconnectedness in global trade, right?
And of course technology remains at the center of the strategic com uh competition you know with what's happening in the China AI models. They are catching up in terms of performance uh of those in the US and they are also competing on cost and efficiency. The energy system power system in China is large and less constrained.
So lots uh going on and I think some of that is uh reflected in markets as well. Way, we just had uh the S&P just had its, you know, best April boy since about 2020 and the backdrop is kind of strong earnings here. Uh what do you make of this market, this earning cycle we're seeing, um and these valuations?
Well, uh valuations look more attractive compared to this time last year because of the very strong earnings that have been coming through. And I would say that the backdrop is a is a is an interesting backdrop, right?
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- us-iran peace talks
- emerging markets equities
- ai tech earnings
- market strategy china visit
- equity resilience
Companies and tickers mentioned
- BLK
- BlackRock
- Wedbush Securities
- Natixis Investment Managers
- Chicago Council of Global Affairs
Watch the episode
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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