Episode summary
US Pending-Home Sales Jumped to Highest Since 2023 in November
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 5 min · Guests: Lisa Sturtevant, Lawrence Yun
Summary
Housing affordability is improving a little as mortgage rates ease from around 7% earlier in the year to the 6.3% range and home-price growth cools, but the guest said the market is still a big challenge for first-time buyers and moderate-income buyers. She said 2026 should be a transition year, with better conditions helping demand while economic uncertainty keeps some households on the sidelines.
The guest argued that the recovery will not be uniform across the country. In inventory-constrained areas in the Midwest and Northeast, homes are still selling above asking and attracting multiple offers, while parts of the South and Southwest offer more inventory and better leverage for buyers. That means first-time buyers should find more opportunity in some markets than others.
She also said rates are unlikely to fall enough to solve the problem by themselves. Her forecast is for the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to stay above 6% in 2026, and she stressed that affordability remains stretched even at 6%, given incomes versus home prices. More supply would help, but she said building needs to happen where jobs and economic opportunity are strongest.
Key takeaways
- The guest expects 2026 to be a tug of war between improving affordability and lingering economic uncertainty.
- She said first-time buyers will see better options in parts of the South and Southwest, while the Midwest and Northeast remain highly competitive.
- Her forecast is that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate will stay above 6% in 2026.
- She said even a 6% mortgage rate still leaves a $410,000 home requiring about $115,000 in income to qualify.
- The guest argued that more housing supply matters most where job growth and economic opportunity are strongest.
Notable quotes
“housing affordability has really been the major constraint on the housing market and we're starting to see affordability improve a little bit”
“First time buyers, moderate income buyers are still facing a really big challenge in the year ahead”
“I think it is going to get easier for first time homebuyers, but not in every market across the country”
“we're going to be watching. I think the key thing is for homebuyers to not try to time rates”
“there is a lot of economic uncertainty”
How the episode opens
Yeah. You know, housing affordability has really been the major constraint on the housing market and we're starting to see affordability improve a little bit. Right.
We've seen mortgage rates come down a little bit at their lowest levels about as they've been all year. We've seen price growth slow a little bit, which is also helped. And so that's made affordability a little bit easier.
But boy, it still is a big challenge for those who are still trying to get into the market. First time buyers, moderate income buyers are still facing a really big challenge in the year ahead. So do we.
What do we have to look forward to? If you're if you're wanting to get a first time homebuyer, which we know the I think the average age now of a first time homebuyer is close to 40 in this country, which is hard to believe. And lots of folks are have given up on owning a home dream or delaying, you know, lots of life milestones just because they cannot afford that home.
Is that going to change them in a meaningful way and in the new year? And if so, what parts of the country should those folks be looking at? Yeah, you're absolutely right.
This idea of becoming a homeowner for first time homebuyers, it's all tied up with all sorts of other life milestones. Right. That people are either delaying or sort of taking another look at.
And I think it is going to get easier for first time homebuyers, but not in every market across the country. You know, there are places where inventory is still very, very tight, places in the Midwest, places in the Northeast where it's very competitive, where homes are still selling above, asking where there's still multiple offers on homes.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- us pending home sales
- mortgage rates
- housing affordability
- home prices
- housing market outlook for 2026
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Bright MLS
Watch the episode
Watch “US Pending-Home Sales Jumped to Highest Since 2023 in November” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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